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Our full discussion transcribed after the break:
by Rod D. Martin
September 10, 2026
I appeared on NTD Newsroom with host Don Ma and Democrat strategist Lee Neves to debate Trump’s midterm convention gamble, the $5,000 dividend promise, and the turnout fight that could decide Congress.
Lee and I debate:
Why TV ratings miss the point of Trump’s convention.
A thousand more voters in just twenty races: the Republican opportunity.
Trump’s $5,000 promise and the fight over the economy.
Why even a Democrat strategist says socialists has hurt his party.
Bad approval ratings don’t automatically mean a Democrat wave.
PLUS, bringing down Iran’s regime without wrecking the country.
It’s the debate and analysis you need: watch the interview, and pass it along!
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Our Full Discussion:
Don Ma: For our takeaways from the first day of the GOP convention yesterday, joining us now to discuss is Rod Martin, policy analyst, founder and CEO of Martin Capital. We also have Lee Neves, Democratic political consultant.
First of all, thank you both for coming on today. Rod, if I may, I’d like to start with you here. What did you think of the overall message yesterday from the convention that the last year and a half worked? That was one of the messages. What do you think?
Rod D. Martin: First of all, it’s good to see Lee, and thank you for having me, Don. I think the convention is a brilliant idea. I don’t understand why the Democrats haven’t done it.
This is basically a two-day infomercial for the agenda of the people we have on the ballot in a low-turnout election. Every midterm, you’ve got a significant drop-off in the number of people who turn out from a presidential year. In 2022, it was a 20-point drop-off.
This is an opportunity to showcase people who are in tough races — like Mike Rogers — and get them out there, let them do their thing, get great video in front of a big crowd. Whether everybody attends or not is almost irrelevant. It’s great turnout, of course, but the people in the room aren’t the main audience. Even so, the people in the room are the workers who go and get out the vote.
For all these different reasons, I think this is going to become a feature of American politics. I think both parties are going to do it from now on, and I think that’s a positive thing.
Don Ma: Lee, do you think a midterm convention itself is a good idea? Do you think Democrats should follow suit?
Lee Neves: I think Democrats haven’t done it because they have a scheduler who actually knows what’s going on in the United States.
Day one of the convention happened to also be on the same day as the opening game of the National Football League. You know, that sports league that everyone in the United States follows. Game two of the convention will be on the night of the Netflix special, where my San Francisco 49ers will hand it to the L.A. Rams down under in Australia.
The people the Republicans want this convention to reach are going to be too busy with pizza watching football, not paying attention to a political convention. This political convention is literally the political version of, “If a tree falls in the forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?”
Don Ma: Rod, a lot there to respond to. Do you think people watched the convention?
Rod D. Martin: I think it’s completely irrelevant. That’s what I was just saying. This is two days of great video of great Republican candidates in front of a great crowd. That’s going to fill our advertisements for the rest of the year. It’s also a room filled with activists who are going to go home and redouble their efforts to turn people out.
Nobody honestly cares if anybody watches this on TV. That’s a broadcast-TV-era kind of statement. In 1986, that would have mattered. In 2026, it’s completely irrelevant. I don’t watch anything live. I stream it all, unless it’s on NTD.
Don Ma: Thank you for that, Rod. Lee, do you think that even if people didn’t watch it on day one or day two, they’ll still hear about it after the fact on news?
The $5,000 Promise and the Economy
Lee Neves: A couple of things. If the Republican activists need a convention to get them fired up for the November election, then the Republican base and activists have an enthusiasm problem, and that’s really going to be a problem come the first Tuesday in November.
Are people going to hear about it? Yes. They’re obviously going to hear about the $5,000 check that Trump is promising. And then the next question will be, “Well, gee, is that going to come before or after the $5,000 DOGE check and the $2,000 tariff check we were all promised?”
If anything, that $5,000 promise is a great way for Republican congressmen to fundraise. I should know. I got a fundraising text from Congressman Jake Ellzey there in Texas saying, “Will you accept the $5,000 from Trump? To do so, please just donate $25 to my campaign.” And if I’m getting that fundraising text, they probably need to clean up their fundraising lists.
Don Ma: Rod, will $5,000 get you to vote?
Rod D. Martin: It won’t, but it’s a great, great dividend to the American people. The economy is kicking into gear. It’s taken a little while to clean up the mess that Lee’s friends in the White House did for the last four years.
But the truth of the matter is, we have the Atlanta Fed telling us we’re looking at 4.7 percent GDP growth for the quarter. That’s on an annualized basis. That’s an incredible achievement.
As that ramps up, as we bring factories home, as we create great jobs, as we get rid of now three million illegal aliens who were depressing the job market for the union workers that the Democrats used to represent, what we’re seeing today is the beginning of a boom. As a result of that, yeah, the American people deserve a $5,000 dividend.
But I’d go you one further. I’m still waiting for that cheap health care Barack Obama promised me. I’m still waiting for being able to keep my doctor. I’m still waiting for the free health care Bernie Sanders promised. All of this stuff was bunk.
Guarantee you, we’ll follow through on this if we win. And if we don’t, the Democrats are going to do their best to put taxes back on tips, back on overtime, back on Social Security, and back on the backs of the American worker.
Don Ma: I appreciate your honesty, Rod. But if it were me, if I weren’t going to vote and they promised me $5,000, I would change that decision so quick.
Capitalism, Socialism, and Iran
Don Ma: Lee, Republicans are framing this election as a choice between capitalism and socialism. Do you agree with that framing?
Lee Neves: No. It’s simply name-calling because they’ve got nothing else. Trump came into office on day one saying he was going to lower prices. He was going to make things more affordable. He was going to make the economy better. Instead, what have we got? We’ve got the highest gas prices on Labor Day since 2012, is what we have. We have a president getting us into a war there’s no end to.
Look, I have been on this network. I’ve been on other networks. I’m the one Democrat who said, if we’re going to go into war with Iran, just take them out. Just take them out. They’re the biggest funder of terror. They’re going to do nothing but cause trouble. Just take them out. Don’t diddle the waddle like we’re currently doing now, with one foot in, one foot out. Either do it or don’t.
At the end of the day, American voters want to see someone who’s taking their woes seriously. We currently have a president who is more preoccupied with sending out Truth Social posts about renaming New Mexico “New America” and renaming Lake Ontario than actually getting down to solving the problems that a lot of families are facing today.
Don Ma: Rod, you’re smiling there. What are you thinking?
Rod D. Martin: I’m thinking Democrats used to have a sense of humor. It used to be fun to watch late-night television. It hasn’t been since Obama took office because nobody on that side can laugh.
But the truth of the matter is, we are moving into an historic economic boom. It is just amazing what’s gathering when you look at the manufacturing numbers, when you look at the trade numbers, when you look at the energy numbers. It’s incredible.
I’ve got to say, I completely agree with Lee’s enthusiasm about taking out the center of terrorism in the entire Middle East. Totally agree with that. I do think the president’s approach is better, and strangely enough for Donald Trump, a little more nuanced, in that using the blockade to choke the snake and not merely chop its head off is avoiding a lot of collateral damage that would otherwise happen in a war.
We want to leave an intact country as much as possible to the Iranian people when they throw off their tormentors. But the point is, I don’t think that’s going to move much at the margin.
This is a low-turnout election. Every midterm election is. Lee’s team probably wins because the president’s party almost always loses the midterms. But the truth is, if we can turn out a thousand more people in just 20 key races across this country, we win the House and the Senate. Those numbers are plain, and this convention is helping.
Socialism and the Michigan Senate Race
Don Ma: Lee, let me ask you the question in this way. Do you think Democratic Socialist candidates are an advantage or disadvantage for the Democratic Party?
Lee Neves: Look, I’m going to say they’re a disadvantage ten times out of ten because I’m not a DSA candidate. I am very, very well known for being pretty in the center as far as a Democrat is.
Do DSA candidates do well in New York and West Hollywood and Berkeley? Yeah, they do. They fit those districts. They want to run there, fine. They’re one of 435 when they get to the United States Congress.
Now, in states like Michigan and Florida and whatnot, no, they’re not exactly the best candidates to have. I’ve said that before, and I’ll say it again. They’re not going to attract your centrist voters that we need to get to win those types of elections.
The funny thing with Michigan is that the Republicans were in the catbird seat after that primary. El-Sayed won the nomination. Mike Rogers was looking great. There were going to be a lot of disaffected Democrats who weren’t going to vote for Rogers and probably wouldn’t vote for El-Sayed.
Then Trump goes ahead and starts to pick a fight with Michigan’s biggest trading partner, Canada. If there’s one state that’s going to feel the effect of those tariffs and feel it deeply, it’s going to be Michigan. Come Election Day, they may very well take that out on Mike Rogers.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: El-Sayed, not my kind of Democrat. But he, I think, is going to benefit, fortunately or unfortunately, take your pick, from what’s going on between the United States and Canada right now.
Don Ma: Rod, you can respond to that, but I want to ask you a follow-up to what you said earlier: that if more voters turn out for this midterm, then Republicans have a chance for the House and the Senate. Do you believe that Republicans still think Trump is the turnout machine for the GOP?
Rod D. Martin: I think he clearly is. He certainly was in the primaries. Nearly every single contested primary in which Trump made an endorsement, his guy won. That’s unprecedented in two ways. First of all, nobody has that kind of batting average. But second, presidents historically haven’t actually endorsed a lot of people in contested primaries. That’s kind of a new thing. Trump was able to move the dial again and again and again. So in a low-turnout election, yeah, absolutely.
I think Lee’s hitting exactly the right note for Michigan, although I think we can overcome it, because they nominated a Muslim Marxist to run as the standard-bearer of the Democrat Party. And I very much hope that Lee’s team wins that fight internally.
I think Bill Maher’s doing great work here, too. He’s certainly no Republican. But the truth is, we used to have a consensus in this country about the values that shape America, about our Constitution, about the basic values that we all shared. We were just arguing about how to achieve those ends. Democrats had a different view. We had a different view.
Now we’re talking about people who are completely outside of that circle. They hate America. They hate the Constitution. And they’ll tell you so.
I’m grateful for Lee, and I’m grateful that there are guys like him fighting for the soul of the Democrat Party. But for this year, I just want to beat the Democrat Party, and I think we’ve got a shot.
Trump’s Approval Ratings Versus Turnout
Don Ma: Lee, do you think it’s a good strategy to put Trump front and center for the convention?
Lee Neves: No. His popularity is so far underwater, the DMV may be more popular than Trump is these days.
Not only that, here’s the problem with the convention. Literally, there were Republicans calling it “Trumpapalooza.” No. If you’re going to have a convention, talk about actual solutions, because Rod was talking about how the economy is booming, is doing great. If I give Rod that, that the underlying factors of the economy are all fantastic, that doesn’t matter. What voters feel is what matters. That’s what’s going to drive how they vote.
Right now, your average voter doesn’t feel like the economy is great. They don’t feel like they’re doing well. They feel like they’re paying too much for gas, and they shouldn’t. They feel like they’re paying too much for groceries. And the guy they’re all pointing at and blaming is President Donald J. Trump, because when he ran on solving those issues in 2024, he did an excellent job. I’ll give credit where credit is due.
When he ran in 2024, he was laser-focused on the economy, on showing that Kamala Harris was out of touch and not worrying about everyday Americans’ issues. He said he was going to change that on day one. Whether it changed or not, voters feel like it hasn’t changed. And that is what is going to drive them come the first Tuesday in November.
Don Ma: Rod, do you agree that this convention is not trying to convince all voters nationwide? The approval rating for Trump is not the end-all, be-all, because for the base, the GOP approval for Trump is still high.
You were talking about turnout. If the turnout machine is not dead, midterms, as you mentioned earlier, are often based on turnout. The fact that the Republican Party is doing this convention and is trying to have turnout rather than persuade, do you think his approval rating, perhaps in this context, may not be the final factor?
Rod D. Martin: Look, it’s a turnout election. If you don’t fire up the base, you’re going to lose. It’s just that simple. The Democrats have to solve the same problem. History’s on their side, but you still have the mechanical part of politics that you have to actually execute on.
Donald Trump can fire up our people. There’s no question about that. Now, should he go campaign in New Hampshire? No. Sununu needs to carry that on his own. He needs to say, “This is all about New Hampshire.” That will be a winning message there. But there are a lot of other parts of the country, such as Texas, where Trump’s presence makes an enormous positive difference.
I’m not concerned about his approval rating as far as that goes, because I know it’s a turnout election. He needs to fire up his own team. That likely produces the numbers he needs.
But the bigger point here is, as this rolls along, as the economy improves, you’ll see better numbers. It may take a minute. That’s fair. But the bigger point we must not lose track of is that Abdul El-Sayed will put taxes back on tips. He’ll put taxes back on overtime. He’ll put taxes back on Social Security. And Donald Trump already did away with all of them.
While it is true that Donald Trump frequently engages in hyperbole, “Oh, I’m going to do such and such on day one,” most of us know that it is hyperbole. Most of us know that’s just how he talks. And nearly everybody by now has figured out that Donald Trump delivers results, that tax law being one of the bigger ones we’ve ever had for poorer and working Americans.
Redistricting and the Possibility of a Democrat Wave
Don Ma: Lee, you bring up Trump’s approval ratings. I want to contrast for you: In 2018, voters who disliked Trump translated that into votes for Democratic House candidates, so Democrats ultimately took the chamber. But I think there’s a difference. It’s a little bit different in 2016. And that is, polling for Democrats on the generic congressional ballot shows they have a smaller lead compared to what they had at the end of 2018.
Maybe approval rating doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to produce a 2018-sized Democratic wave. Also, we have to consider the redistricting factor, because according to certain estimates, redistricting has created approximately a nine-seat Republican advantage. What is your reaction to this?
Lee Neves: The nine-seat advantage is being generous, because you’ve got to look at a lot of, first of all, Missouri. Their map just got halted by the Supreme Court this morning. They’ve got to revert back to the old map.
Places like Florida, where they had to cut into safe Republican seats to make other seats slightly Republican, and they were wanting to get four or five new seats out of that. But when you weaken some seats, you put more seats in play, especially in a Democratic wave year.
At the end of the day, look, I have run enough campaigns my entire adult life to know that negative works. People are compelled to go vote, especially in a midterm election like this. They’re compelled to go vote when they don’t like something or they don’t like someone. That’s why I’m not worried about Democrat turnout.
Democrats, by and large, be it DSA or centrist, don’t like President Trump. That’s when they go and cast those ballots. They’re not casting a ballot against Republican Congressman X or Republican Candidate B. They’re casting a ballot against Donald Trump.
Rod is correct. It is a turnout game. Democrats, by and far, are so far a lot more enthused to come out and vote this midterm.
Don Ma: We’ve got to wrap this up, but Rod, if you have any final thoughts, quickly.
Rod D. Martin: Lee’s right about that. Look, if the Democrats get a wave year — and I don’t see that happening — but if they do, there’s no question that none of this redistricting stuff is going to amount to a hill of beans.
I think what we ought to be looking at, though, is the fact that it is historically close. Historically, if the Democrats have had a three- or four-point lead on the generic ballot, our side has won. And you’ve got that Harvard-Harris poll where we’re actually up two on the generic ballot, which is kind of out of the blue. Harvard-Harris is certainly not a Republican-leaning poll.
I think we’re in it. I think we’re going to try to win it. I think we might have a shot at it. And if Lee’s team wins, he’ll be absolutely in line with history.
Don Ma: All right, let’s end it here today. Great speaking to you both, gentlemen. Thank you very much.
