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Our full discussion transcribed after the break:
by Rod D. Martin
November 3, 2026
Democrat strategist Robin Biro and I join Don Ma to discuss the battle for Congress, what it will take for each side to win — and common ground on the dangers of socialism.
Don, Robin, and I discuss:
Why the House is still in play
The Senate races that could decide control
Why turnout can overcome a bad political environment
Investment takes time to become jobs and paychecks
Common ground against socialism — and for real debate
It’s 18 minutes of the in-depth analysis you need: watch it, and pass it along!
Our Full Discussion:
Don Ma: Cook Political Report just shifted 12 more House races toward Democrats. It now favors Democrats in 222 seats, enough to take control of the House, with another 18 races rated as toss-ups.
Joining us now for analysis on where Republicans and Democrats stand is Rod Martin, political analyst and founder and CEO of Martin Capital. And we have Robin Biro, as well, Democratic strategist and former Obama regional campaign director. So good afternoon to you both. And Robin, if I may, I’d like to start with you today.
So do you think, in your opinion, Republicans can break historical trend this midterm cycle?
Robin Biro: No, I think it’s baked into the cake at this point. The polling is unanimous that Democrats are expected to win the House. I’m not seeing anything that says to the contrary. And they would all have to be wrong, Don. And that’s happened before. It happened in 2016. They were all wrong. But no, I don’t think that Republicans are going to be breaking with historical trend.
Don Ma: Okay, Rod, your comments here.
Rod D. Martin: Robin is probably right on both points. The first point is, the president’s party hasn’t won the midterms, but about twice in the last 96 years. And everybody says, well, three times. Well, three isn’t better, but three counts 1998, when actually Bill Clinton’s party did not win the midterms. They just didn’t do as badly as Newt Gingrich said they were going to. So really, the trend has only been bucked twice in a century. And so Robin’s definitely right about that.
At the same time, I think we’re in these races. I really have some hope here, as I’ve told you before, because midterms are low turnout races. And we are seeing elevated turnout this year, especially compared to ’22. But I’m not sure who that is. I’m not sure if that isn’t our people waking up and saying, oh, wait, we really need to do something. Now, if the Democrats take the House, I won’t be shocked at all. But we’re in it. And I think we’ve at least got a shot.
The Senate and the Limits of Forecasting
Don Ma: So, Robin, what do you think about the Senate? Do you think that’s baked into the cake as well, or it’s more of a coin toss?
Robin Biro: That is a coin toss to me. And look, I’m always skeptical about the polling, because as a Democrat, I have certainly been burned by the polling. I was celebrating Hillary’s victory in 2016 in downtown Atlanta when I had to quietly sulk away to my home and brace for impact. So, you know, I’m less optimistic about the Senate. We are projected to do well and maybe win by one or two seats. But I’ve got to say, Don, it’s got to be more than that, because John Fetterman, Senator John Fetterman, is sort of a great unknown right now in our party.
And President Trump has welcomed him with open arms to join Republicans and vote with them. And he may do that.
Don Ma: So, Rod, what do you think about the Senate? Do you think Republicans can take control or maintain control of the Senate?
Rod D. Martin: We absolutely can. I mean, again, the odds are against us, not necessarily against us to keep the Senate, but against us to actually come out ahead of where we are right now, certainly, or even to maintain exactly where we are. And the truth is, Jon Ossoff’s almost certainly going to win Georgia. Michael Whatley’s going to lose in North Carolina because he’s just running a terrible race. And Roy Cooper’s running a great one. But I still feel good about Sununu.
I still feel good about Tafoya. I think we win Kansas. I think we can beat Talarico. So I am not overly pessimistic about the Senate. We may have a terrible night. I mean, Robin’s exactly right. I mean, you’re talking about 2016 with Hillary, but also in 2016, Brexit. You know, the prediction markets are supposed to be all that and a bag of chips, but the prediction markets had Brexit losing with a 98 percent probability at the moment that the polls closed.
So you just never know. But, yeah, the odds are not in our favor.
Independent Voters and the Ground Game
Don Ma: Okay, so, Robin, you said earlier that for Republicans to win, all the indicators have to be wrong when we’re talking about the House. So what is your assessment? What is your characterization of the political environment right now for Republicans before November 3rd?
Robin Biro: They’ve all hitched their saddles to President Trump. And, you know, he’s got fantastic approval ratings within the Republican Party. But where he’s lacking, Don, is with independents. Independents, there’s been attrition among independents. And as you know, one-third of voters vote Republican, one-third vote Democrat, and one-third are independents or sit out. So, you know, that little sliver of independents that are swing voters really kind of define the elections. And ultimately, the people who don’t show up to vote at all but are registered are the ones who really we all and both parties try to capture.
So, you know, it’s anyone’s guess right now. But with the president having lost the favorability among independents, it’s going to be an uphill climb for Republicans.
Don Ma: So, Rod, President Trump, it seems like he’s more focused on turnout. It seems like he believes turnout will decide this election. Robin is saying that independent voters are the deciding factor. What do you think, Rod?
Rod D. Martin: I’m not sure that that’s a distinction with a difference, actually, because, you know, there are only so many Republican and Democrat voters. So you’ve got to turn out people in the middle. And in the middle, we’ve had some slippage. There’s no question. We’ve reverted to the historical mean among Hispanics in particular, which is definitely a significant deflation [from where] Trump was in ’24. On the other hand, again, it’s just the historical norm. In a midterm election, people are annoyed at the president, whichever president you may have.
So I think Trump really needs to focus on turning out that extra little bit of Republican voters that can be turned out. Robin knows better than anybody, you know, in a midterm election, your turnout usually drops something between a third and a half from a presidential year. I think we’re going to do a little better than that this year. But still, there’s enough of a drop-off that whoever has the best GOTV, get-out-the-vote effort, is going to win this in a lot of cases.
There are some that we’re just not going to win for other reasons. But GOTV is everything. And the president is all over that. I mean, you look at some of these rallies he’s doing, and he’s just tireless. I don’t know how an 80-year-old man does half of what he does. But he’s out there. He’s packing 20,000 people into a stadium for a rally. My goodness. If we added about 1,000 votes in about 20 House races, we’d win the House. So, you know, he’s doing everything he can do.
I would just admonish average, everyday Republicans like me to go talk to your friends and drag four of them to the polls. Put them in your car and take them. The Democrats will be. Robin’s going to. You know, but we sometimes aren’t as good at that, and we’ve got to get better.
Affordability, Trump Opposition, and Iran
Don Ma: Okay, Robin, let me ask you this. So I was speaking to a Republican strategist yesterday. I asked him, for Democrats, what the election is about. There was no Democratic side to respond to his answer. But he said what’s unifying Democrats right now is Trump Derangement Syndrome. That’s what’s getting votes out for Democrats. So now that you’re here, I want to ask you the same question. This midterm cycle, midterm elections for Democrats, what is the election about? Is it just about Trump?
Robin Biro: No, thank goodness. No, I would not be still doing this if it was all about Trump. It’s about affordability. It is about medical care. It is about child care. We’re drawing parallels. We’re talking about right now the difference. Look, President Obama was getting some flak this week for saying that the Oval Office looked like a Cheesecake Factory because of all the gold. And what I’m saying to my fellow Democrats is, look, you’re struggling to put food on the table and feed your families and put gas in your cars while the president is gold plating and gilding everything that he can touch in sight.
The contrast is striking. I mean, he just was boasting that his own supporters can’t afford a meal at Mar-a-Lago and they cheered for it. So that’s what we’re drawing. The contrast is affordability, Don.
Don Ma: Okay, Rod, when Democratic voters go out to cast their ballots, from what you can see, what are they voting for?
Rod D. Martin: Democratic voters, I think TDS is very high on the list. And the affordability issue has just been fantastically successful for the Democrats. No question there’s irony in that. We had higher gas prices under Biden. We had all this inflation under Biden. But it doesn’t matter because, you know, two years after that, it’s like, what have you done for me lately? And Trump isn’t quite where they want him to be. Some of that’s because of the war.
Some of that is because of the Green New Deal and closing all these refineries that have shut down that artificially reduces the supply of gasoline and diesel, which I just think is insane.
But if I think that burning some gasoline is going to destroy the planet, then, yeah, I mean, that makes sense. It’d be nice if some of these guys would own up to that like they did for the last decade, you know, but that helped them in November. So I understand what they’re doing. But affordability hurts. There’s no question. That’s probably the biggest thing. And there are some other issues. They’re definitely depressing turnout among some Republicans, such as the Iran war. That’s not really affecting a lot of our people, but it is some at the margin.
And you see that with Tucker Carlson and some of these crazies on podcasts and their followers. Those guys feel like Donald Trump said there would be no wars ever, which is absurd because if you look at his first term, he spent the better part of a year rolling up ISIS. I mean, you know, he took out Soleimani. He did a bunch of similar stuff. And he’s been very, very clear on these things. But that doesn’t change the fact that some people feel like he told them something and did something else.
That is cutting into us.
Don Ma: So, Robin, you said earlier for Democrats, it’s about Democratic voters. It’s about affordability. Then why do I see a lot of Democratic campaign ads all about Trump?
Robin Biro: Because it brings in money. I mean, ads are all about bringing in money and voters. And, you know, anytime they run an ad that talks about specific things that Donald Trump is doing, the money starts coming in from Democratic donors because it takes a ton of money in this state of Citizens United to run viable national campaigns.
The Senate Map, and the Investment-to-Jobs Timeline
Don Ma: So what do you think, Rod, is the most realistic path for Democrats to gain a net of four in the Senate? Which races are you looking at?
Rod D. Martin: Well, if we lose Susan Collins, we’re in a lot of trouble. If we lose Ken Paxton’s race in Texas, we’re really in trouble. I mean, that’s ugly. And the Democrats have been really, really focused on flipping Texas now for a long time. And, you know, they’re doing good work. My hat’s off to their organizing skills. I don’t think they’re going to flip Texas. And I think Susan Collins is a fighter and I think she makes it. I also think, you know, I mentioned Tafoya.
I mentioned Sununu. Another one that I think probably ends up a Republican pickup is Mike Rogers in Michigan. So if those things were to break right for us, there would be no path for the Democrats probably to take the Senate. But if they don’t break our way — and I can’t predict that; those are real toss-ups — I think the Democrats could be in really good shape. I’ll just say this on affordability. And I’ve said it a lot to you and to others. You know, the truth of the matter is Rome wasn’t built in a day.
It does take a while. If Joe Biden were president, Robin would be making that case right now. The truth is the Household Survey shows us adding nearly a million jobs in August and September. I know that’s contradicted by some other numbers, but a million jobs is a million jobs. We saw $18 trillion in investment commitments into this country over the last year and a half that eventually turns into factory floors and big union jobs, which ironically may help Robin’s team a little more than mine.
But nevertheless makes it possible for a middle-class blue-collar worker, which is the majority in this country to be able to support a family on one income again. Like my dad’s generation could do. Those things are wonderful trends. We were told by politicians in both parties for 30 years that those industrial jobs could never come home. It just wasn’t true. And we’re starting to see that accelerate right now. I would encourage Republicans to encourage themselves. Folks, we’re on the right track. We need to not blow it.
And we need to stay the course. We need to stay the course into ’28.
Don Ma: And one point I’d like to reiterate, to echo what Rod said, is that these jobs are private sector jobs. These are not government jobs. And it is the private sector that really grows the economy.
Socialism and the Need for Healthy Public Debate
And Robin, I wanted to ask you this before we wrap up here, because I know you’re not a far left person.
Robin Biro: No, no, no.
Don Ma: Karoline Leavitt said we have some of the most radical Democrats we’ve ever seen run in the history of this country. So I’m just curious, Robin, when you see a DSA candidate, for example, going up against a Republican, you yourself not being a far left person. Do you want to see the DSA candidate win or do you want to see the Republican candidate win?
Robin Biro: Oh, look at you asking the tough questions, Don. At the end of the day, it’s still about the numbers.
Don Ma: I know. I know. Right?
Robin Biro: At the end of the day, it’s still about the numbers. We have to have a majority. Even though I don’t like some of these candidates, I really don’t like the DSA candidates. I’ve fought against them for—now, how long has it been? It’s been over a decade. You know, what I’m hoping, Don, is that moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans can team up together to do something about some of the socialism problems that are happening in America. We’ve got to work together somehow to actually fight this.
Look, there have been moderate Democrats like me fighting this within the Democratic Party, and it is a losing battle, I’m telling you, because Democratic socialism has not only taken root, it’s like getting really baked into the cake here within the party, and we need help to do it. And, you know, we can’t just have a uniparty of the GOP or the Democratic Party. We need to have some sensible people in both parties, and I’m seeing an attrition within the Democratic Party of the sensible moderates.
Don Ma: Okay, Rod, I started with Robin, so let me give you one quick final thought. What do you have to say?
Rod D. Martin: Well, as on so many other things today, I agree with Robin. You’ve got to actually have two points of view. It’s essential because nobody’s right all the time. Nobody’s right all the time. And as a result of that, you have to have a healthy, robust public debate to pick apart different people’s positions and come to a consensus that makes sense for everybody. And if you get to a point where you just have a uniparty, as we kind of have from time to time, it’s not healthy for the country.
It is good that we’re having a debate, I think, between, you know, certainly between us and the socialists, but actually between [Fettermans] and Bill Mahers and the socialists. I think that’s healthy because I think they’re ultimately going to realize that socialism is a catastrophe. It’s never been anything but anywhere it’s been tried. And there actually is a healthy discussion to be had between traditional liberal Democrats and traditional conservative Republicans. It’s better for society if we have those debates. And sometimes we’ll win and sometimes we’ll lose.
But we get to something that works for all Americans. And I promise you, socialism is not that.
Don Ma: All right. Well spoken, both of you. Robin, Rod, it’s been a pleasure to speak with you guys.
Rod Martin and Robin Biro: Likewise. Thank you, Rod. Thank you, Don.
