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Our full discussion transcribed after the break:
by Rod D. Martin
October 9, 2026
I appeared on NTD Newsroom with host Don Ma to discuss the races that could decide the Senate, why Republicans should be trumpeting Trump’s record, and why Iran’s regime is running out of time.
Don and I discuss:
Why Republicans need to embrace and run on Trump’s record
Key Senate races and how they’re shaping up
The radicalism of the so-called Democrat “moderates”
Why Texas is tough, but Talarico will lose
PLUS: Iran’s regime is running out of time
It’s 18 minutes of the in-depth analysis you need: watch it, and pass it along!
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Our Full Discussion:
Don Ma: And to talk about the midterm debate picture with Iowa behind us and Georgia and Michigan, Maine coming up, joining us now to discuss is Rod Martin, political analyst and founder and CEO of Martin Capital. Rod, good afternoon to you. Always appreciate you coming on. So can you give us your takeaway from the debate between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek?
Rod D. Martin: You know, it went well. I think that Hinson needs to quit treating Donald Trump like he has a disease or something. It’s not helping her. Now, to be fair, her polling isn’t bad: it’s a toss-up. But in the only likely voter poll we have, which I believe is Emerson, she’s up five. So it’s not like it’s terrible. I think she’s got a really great shot.
But the truth is Donald Trump just brought a $15 billion investment to her state for the biggest steel mill in American history. Donald Trump has presided over a reduction of the national poverty rate to its lowest level in American history, the highest inflation-adjusted median income in American history.
The fact that some of these candidates aren’t telling our story, aren’t getting out there and saying, look, the media is telling you all this stuff, but the truth is this. The fact that they’re not doing that is costing them points in races that are completely winnable. I think she will win, but I think she’s going to have a harder time than she ought to. Same is true for the governor’s race there. And it’s just an unforced error.
Don Ma: So Iowa voted for Trump by about 13 points in 2024. Do you think Hinson should be leading by more?
Rod D. Martin: Yes, she should. But she’s not running on the record that has been accumulated in that time. And she really should be. She’s part of the House of Representatives that passed the One Big Beautiful Bill. She is a vote for getting rid of taxes on tips, getting rid of taxes on overtime, getting rid of taxes on Social Security, all the things that made possible this $15 billion investment in an Iowa steel mill.
I mean, who ever heard of an Iowa steel mill? Is that even a thing? But the biggest steel mill in American history is going to Iowa because of the policies she voted for that came from this president.
And some of our candidates are just having a really hard time running on a record that honestly is an outstanding record. It’s not as outstanding as it may be in a year or two years when it’s had more time to grow.
But we have had an incredible CapEx boom in the last year. It’s just extraordinary how much money is getting poured into new manufacturing in the United States that affect regular people in Iowa and all of our states. The big new Anduril announcement regarding the shipyard in Baltimore. Just incredible things happening that haven’t happened in decades.
And honestly, she would be doing better if she were running on that. So would the governor’s candidates in her state and others. And, you know, Mike Rogers is doing a better job, I think, of this in Michigan. But still, the same thing is true.
“Moderate” Campaigns and the Manufacturing Record
Don Ma: So what do you think? You bring up no tax on tips and overtime, Social Security. It seems like Josh Turek is sort of supporting that to a certain degree, no tax on tips and overtime. How are you looking at that? Is that one of the reasons why he’s getting the numbers he’s getting?
Rod D. Martin: Yeah, he’s running as a moderate. He’s not running as some crazy like Abdul El-Sayed or Zohran Mamdani. And to have any shot at winning in Iowa, he better not run like those guys. That just isn’t going to sell there.
But moderate is as moderate does. It’s all fine to talk about these things. But who put taxes on tips and overtime and Social Security in the first place? That would be his party, the Democrats. It wasn’t us. It was them. And they have just pushed that and pushed that and pushed that for decades. President Trump came back and gave us some actual relief.
Likewise, the Democrats have done everything in their power to prevent the construction of new manufacturing plants in this country. Obama just laughed at the idea that manufacturing could ever come back. He mocked Trump for saying he could do it. You know, all of this has gone to China. It can never come home.
Well, guess what? It can. And it is. And we have a record. They have a record too.
They have a record of shutting down refineries, two in California just since the war started. They want to talk about gas prices? Quit shutting refineries that produce the gasoline. You know, everywhere you look, Democrats are opposed to the basic building blocks of prosperity.
And Hinson is for those things. She needs to say it a little clearer. But she is, as I said, in the only likely voter poll that we have that’s current, she is up. I think she does pretty well in the end.
Don Ma: Okay. I do also want to ask you about Georgia, Michigan, and Maine. But let me just ask you one last thing on this debate. So early voting is going to start soon. How much do you think this debate moved the needle before ballots go out?
Rod D. Martin: I think it mattered. I think she did a good job. She didn’t do a great job. She did a good job. I think that people are aware of just how crazy the Democrats have become in countless states. Turek is clearly trying to distinguish himself from that. I think he did okay, too. And I think he’s run a good race. But I think ultimately this fell in her favor. And I think she probably wins this. I’m a little more concerned about the governor’s race.
Michigan, Georgia, Maine, and the Senate Map
Don Ma: Okay. So for El-Sayed versus Mike Rogers in those races, and of course Ossoff versus Mike Collins, what are your thoughts on those? What are you watching for?
Rod D. Martin: You know, in Michigan, I still just don’t buy that Michigan voters are going to elect a Marxist Muslim. I just don’t buy it. I think Mike Rogers looks like a winner. When you look at the polls that actually measure likely voters, not registered voters, likely voters, Rogers is within the margin of error consistently. It’s a tough race, there’s no question. But I think he can win this.
I think John James has a little tougher problem in the governor’s race there in Michigan. He’s a little further behind. This is a shame, I might add. John James is fantastic. He is really one of our superstars. And it would be a horrible shame if Michigan doesn’t elect him governor. But I think there’s plenty of time for him to pull it out.
If you look at Georgia, Ossoff is still looking good. There’s still time for the Republican to pull ahead. But, you know, time is short. It’s the 8th of October. He’s going to have to get with it. And some people are going to have to spend some money there that they haven’t so far.
And then you look at a state like Maine, where we keep being told Susan Collins is going to lose. But I’m sorry, Susan Collins has been supposed to lose every race I can remember. I don’t really see her conking out here. So you look at all those. I think on balance, we’re probably looking pretty good.
I would throw in New Hampshire, where I think Sununu has a very strong shot. I’m disappointed in Michael Whatley’s campaign in North Carolina. They need to quit running this milquetoast, “Oh, I’m a family man” kind of stuff and actually get serious about the issues where Roy Cooper is vulnerable.
And, you know, Texas, I agree with the president. I think Paxton pulls it out. I think we saw just how much in the primary, when he was outspent more than 10-to-1 and still pulled off a huge upset. He’s not going to get outspent that way this time because of Elon Musk, because of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and because of the Trump super PACs. He will be plenty well-funded, despite being a pretty pathetic fundraiser. But he’s a great attorney general, and I think he’ll be a great senator for Texas.
Why Competing in Texas Costs So Much
Don Ma: Okay, let me ask you a follow-up on Paxton. Why are Republicans spending so much money on a Senate seat in Texas that’s supposed to be safe?
Rod D. Martin: Well, Talarico’s tough. There’s no question. He’s a good candidate. He is a winsome candidate. And honestly, he’s just lying through his teeth. This is a guy we know what he believes. He couldn’t be much clearer about, you know, being a vegan and being for chemically castrating children and all these horrible left-wing things that I don’t think any of us imagined 20 years ago could be anybody’s thing. But, you know, now it’s mainstream Democrat belief.
I don’t think Texas votes for that, but I also know that Texas has one of the most expensive political landscapes in the nation because you have so very, very many expensive media markets that you’ve got to go in and buy high-priced ads everywhere at once. And that’s before you get to the on-the-ground kind of get-out-the-vote stuff.
You know, this is all really expensive. Texas is really big. Anybody who’s ever driven from Texarkana to El Paso can tell you about that. It’s just huge. So it costs a lot more money. And fortunately, between Elon and the president and the NRSC, I think we’re going to have that.
Maine and the Stakes of Senate Control
Don Ma: Okay. I want to jump around a little bit here. I want to ask you a question about Troy Jackson’s chances in Maine versus Susan Collins. And I want to ask you about the point that Jackson is supposed to be a replacement after Platner dropped out. Do you think the fact that Platner dropped out, all that, do you think that still matters in this election?
Rod D. Martin: Maybe at the margin, a little bit. I mean, it’s obvious what the Democrats wanted. And I don’t think in their replacement they really came up with anybody who is that far different from what their voters wanted in the first place.
So Maine has a pretty clear choice. You’ve got a kind of middle-of-the-road, RINO-y Republican who has fantastic constituent service and takes care of Maine, versus a guy who’s going to tell you he’s pretty moderate, but he’s actually probably going to vote pretty radical. And the truth is, this is the landscape across all of these races.
Whether you’re talking about Jon Ossoff or Talarico or Turek or El-Sayed or any of them, what you’re really looking at is someone who’s going to be a reliable vote for Chuck Schumer. And he’s going to vote to organize the Senate. People don’t understand just how important that is. But having a one-seat Senate majority means the Democrats get two-thirds of the committee assignments, get two-thirds of the committee budgets. Everything flips in their favor. It’s not proportional.
So if he’s going to vote for Chuck Schumer, and most of the time he’s going to vote with Chuck Schumer, does it really matter what he says on the campaign trail?
I grew up in Arkansas. We had this problem for decades. You had these guys running for the Senate or the House, for that matter, in Arkansas who came home and pretended they were just good old boys and, “Oh, we’re conservative just like you. And we don’t understand what those Yankee liberals are up there doing.” And then they go to Washington, and they voted with those Yankee liberals one hundred percent of the time.
That’s exactly what you’re getting here.
And I think it’s incumbent upon people like Hinson, like Sununu: these guys actually have to tell not just our positive story, what we’re achieving, the progress that has been made. It isn’t finished. It’s just revving up.
But they also have to tell the truth about these Democrats and what they’re actually going to do when they get to Washington. And if they have their gloves on, they’re going to lose. I mean, it’s that simple.
American politics today is pretty bare-knuckled. You actually have to say it strong. And if anybody has taught us that, it’s Donald Trump, absolutely the comeback kid. Who on earth could have imagined that he would come back from everything they did to him from 2021 through 2024?
And yet here he is, because he tells you what he thinks, he tells you what he means, and then he goes and does it. And that’s what our Republican candidates down ballot have to do, too.
Talarico: “God is Nonbinary”
Don Ma: Okay, Rod, just one last question. And if you don’t mind, humor me for a moment here. Again, I’m jumping around a little bit. So Talarico said, “God is non-binary.” I think he said that. Your reaction?
Rod D. Martin: Yes, he did. He did. It’s just unbelievable. And he comes back later and tries to peel off of that a little bit. I’m sorry. I don’t really believe that sells in Texas.
And I know what we were told about Beto and his race, and he was going to win, and he was going to turn Texas blue, and Cruz was toast, and blah, blah, blah. I think we’re seeing Beto Part Two here. I don’t buy that a largely evangelical state is going to vote for the “God is non-binary” guy, the vegan guy, the chemically castrate children guy. I just don’t see it.
So Paxton has his work cut out for him, no question. And the president’s got to get in there and help, which, as you see even on this newscast, he’s doing. But still, I think ultimately we prevail. I think Texas is pretty solidly red. Not as solid as my Florida has become, but headed back in that direction. And I think Talarico’s got more baggage than an airline.
Iran: Economic Pressure and the Midterm Calendar
Don Ma: Okay. For real now, one last thing here. I promise this is the last thing. So I wanted to get your reaction to President Trump saying today that he’s not going to strike Iran before the midterms. Just a final thought here.
Rod D. Martin: Yeah, I think that’s the right call. I mean, the truth is our entire strategy is about strangling Iran economically. We’ve gone after the leadership’s Swiss bank accounts and British Virgin Islands bank accounts and all the places they have stashed all the money they’ve stolen from the Iranian people. We’ve gone after that. We’ve shut that down. We have shut down entry and exit into that country.
There is nothing getting through our blockade. And we’ve completely put the lie to their claim to be able to control the Strait of Hormuz. We’re getting as much oil through Hormuz now as we were before the war. So they can only hold out so long.
Dropping a few more bombs and making that the story when our candidates need to be talking about their story is just not a good idea. And the president knows we’re doing more damage with the blockade than we were doing with the bombing.
Now, don’t be surprised if Israel does something in the next few weeks. And don’t be surprised if we do something pretty remarkable immediately after the midterms. But the Iranians miscalculated in a very big way. We’ve been talking about this for a year.
The Iranians calculated that Donald Trump was scared that this would cost him the midterms. But Donald Trump came into office perfectly aware that the president’s party has only won the midterms three times in living memory. It almost never happens. So he had written that off to start with. His strategy didn’t depend on winning in November. And despite that, I think we have a really good shot at winning this November and bucking the historical norm.
So on both of those counts, win or lose, the Iranians miscalculated this. And they don’t have enough run room left to keep paying the IRGC thugs who have to be counted on to suppress protesters in the street.
I believe the revolution is coming. I think that we’re going to see a free Iran. And if we do, I will say it will be a godsend to the world. It will also be one of the greatest investment opportunities of the 2030s. And for everyone’s sake, let us pray that that should happen.
Don Ma: And let me just add one last comment before we let you go here. And it relates to you saying that it’s a good decision, that President Trump is not going to strike Iran before the midterms.
So I was speaking to a veteran energy industry analyst yesterday. And he said the worst of the energy disruption, the Iran war, is behind us now. So it makes sense. If the worst is behind us, why would President Trump strike Iran and potentially cause more disruption, potentially that is, to the energy situation? So, I mean, on that front as well, this is a good choice.
So, Rod, I always appreciate you coming on the show. Thank you very much.
Rod D. Martin: Thank you.
