Trump’s Russia Trap Is Snapping Shut
Putin’s oil empire is burning, his Shadow Fleet is hunted, Ukraine is retaking ground, and China is choosing American energy over rescuing its “ally.” When Trump finishes Iran, Russia is next.
by Rod D. Martin
May 23, 2026
Reuters reported this week that virtually all major oil refineries in central Russia have been forced to halt or scale back fuel output after Ukrainian drone strikes. The affected plants represent more than 83 million metric tons of annual refining capacity — roughly one quarter of Russia’s total — and account for more than 30 percent of Russian gasoline and about a quarter of its diesel.
You’re watching in real time the collapse I told you was coming.
Russia’s oil empire — the machine that funds Putin’s war, props up his regime, and gives Moscow what remains of its global leverage — is being taken apart piece by piece.
For months, the foreign-policy priesthood has insisted that Donald Trump was “distracted” by Iran, “soft” on Russia, and insufficiently committed to Ukraine because he refused to recite the neocon catechism on cable news.
They missed the point. For the last year, Trump has taken a carrot-and-stick approach to the Ukraine war, as he has in countless other conflicts, resulting in eight peace deals in an eight-month span. For Russia, the carrot is not just ending the killing and lifting the sanctions. It’s the rehabilitation of Russia, its reentry into the good graces of the industrialized world (as opposed to China’s neocolonial exploitation and the rogues’ gallery of North Korea and Iran), plus direct U.S. investment into Russia, badly needed even before the catastrophe of war.
Putin refused. The domestic cost of admitting defeat — even a defeat that came with sizable chunks of Ukrainian territory — simply seemed too great. You know, because it’s Russia, where failure can be fatal.
The stick, of course, has always been twofold. First: choke Russia’s cash flow by making its oil effectively unsaleable, through sweeping sanctions and, since December, direct seizure of the illicit Shadow Fleet tankers carrying Russia’s oil exports. Second: remove the geographic immunity Russia has enjoyed for four years by arming Ukraine to strike deep into Russia — not just its military assets but its economic ones as well — and, crucially, removing the Biden-era leash preventing it from doing so.
Trump has spent the intervening months giving Putin that stick. Not a speech. Not a threat. Not a strongly worded letter. A system.
Ukraine is striking Russia’s production, refining, storage, pumping, and export infrastructure. Even India, previously one of the Kremlin’s major (de facto) allies and energy purchasers, has begun interdicting Shadow Fleet tankers while buying oil, LNG, and coal from the United States. Countries as disparate as Belgium, Sweden, and Malaysia have begun seizing tankers as well. Indonesia has signed a defense pact with the U.S., placing the crucial straits of Sunda, Lombok, Makassar, and Malacca even further under American control.
And China — supposedly Russia’s “no limits” partner — is buying American LNG while refusing to approve the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline Moscow desperately needs to replace the European gas market it’s lost. Putin went to Beijing this week to sign that exact deal. He walked away empty-handed.
Putin thought time was on his side.
Trump used that time to close the exits.
Russia’s Oil Machine Is Being Taken Apart
Russia has often been described as “a gas station masquerading as a country.” Like most clever lines, it is not entirely fair. Russia has real science, real culture, real history, and real nuclear weapons. It’s not nothing.
But as a description of Putin’s state finances, the line is close enough. Here’s why.
