Top Eight Senate Races to Watch in 2026
Democrats and Republicans are eyeing pivotal Senate races as polling, retirements, and primaries shape the 2026 electoral battlefield.
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by Joseph Lord and Jackson Richman
December 31, 2025
As 2025 draws to a close, the country is already turning its attention to next year’s midterm elections.
Republicans are facing favorable odds in the Senate, where they currently hold a 53–47 advantage.
In the 2026 midterms, 33 Senate seats are up for election: 20 currently held by Republicans and 13 held by Democrats. Prediction site Polymarket gives Republicans a 66 percent chance at holding the upper chamber.
To do so, they’ll need to fend off challenges from Democrats and make gains in a series of key races, including in Georgia, North Carolina, Maine, and Texas.
Meanwhile, Democrats are the current favorites to reclaim the House from Republicans, who hold the chamber 220–213, with two vacancies. Prediction sites such as Polymarket are giving Democrats a 78 percent chance of winning, and RealClearPolitics (RCP) shows Democrats leading in House polls by about 3.7 percentage points.
Here are the top eight Senate races to watch, leading up to the Nov. 3, 2026, general election.
1. Texas
Both the Democratic and Republican primaries in the Lone Star State are intense contests.
