Time Is Not on Putin's Side
Which is why Ukrainian, U.S., and Russian talks are continuing.
NOTE: As we’ve predicted, Vladimir Putin is in a bind. He can’t just end his invasion without personal physical danger to himself. But he also can’t advance in Ukraine. His Russia has been shown to be a regional power at best, talking heads notwithstanding. And as Zelensky continues to destroy Russia’s energy infrastructure while Trump goes after the Shadow Fleet — the U.S. Navy seized another oil tanker in the Indian Ocean just yesterday (take note India and China) — Putin is faced with a shrinking treasury and an increasing inability to pursue the war.
The war Putin started to reassert Russian greatness is on the brink of unraveling Russia. Here’s the latest from Abu Dhabi and Donetsk. — RDM
by Martin Arostegui
February 10, 2026
With two-thirds of Ukraine’s power grid destroyed by months of Russian missile barrages, which have left much of the population without electricity, heat, or water during a freezing winter, President Zelensky is following Trump’s advice of seeking peace with the Kremlin through U.S.-mediated talks, which started in January in Abu Dhabi.
He has dropped demands for a pre-agreed ceasefire, recognizing that European governments that have encouraged maximalist positions at the detriment of his relations with the Trump administration can’t or won’t put their money or arms where their mouth is.
“Europe loves to discuss the future, but avoids taking action today,” Zelensky said in last week’s speech before the WEF in Davos. He complained that the EU failed to turn over $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to Ukraine as promised and that Germany sent air defense systems with no missiles. “There can be no security guarantees without the U.S.,” Zelensky concluded.
Putin is also being dragged by Trump into negotiating from an increasingly weak position. Russia’s declining oil revenues and falling arms production as U.S. sanctions bite into its strategic industries threaten the capacity of its war machine. Its geopolitical position is eroding with the loss of Venezuela and Syria. Key allies in Iran also face possible obliteration.
Most importantly, Russia’s ground offensive in eastern Ukraine seems bogged down in a costly stalemate, falling short of key objectives and suffering reversals.
The outcomes of any peace negotiations are usually decided by conditions on the battlefield, and it’s that which is now driving Putin’s desire to talk. If Ukraine’s fortified industrial triangle in Donetsk, encompassing the cities of Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and Konstantinovka, continues holding on, Putin’s hand diminishes.
Ukraine has been fortifying the Donetsk industrial belt with extensive underground bunker complexes, minefields, and tactically deployed elite units to plug Russian breakthroughs where they occur. The elaborate defensive strategy appears to be working.
In the days prior to joining last Sunday’s first round of peace talks, Russia launched an “extraordinarily high volume of attacks in Pokrovsk,” a town that lies about 50 miles south of Kramatorsk, controlling a highway that leads into the industrial triangle. Capturing the artery would allow the Russians to outflank Ukraine’s main defenses in the region.
This is of particular note because on December 1, Putin announced that Pokrovsk had fallen. More than two months later, it has not.
