Russia's Oil Empire — and Ability to Pay for the War — Faces Rapid Collapse

Ukrainian drone and missile strikes are systematically destroying the Russian oil machine, without which Putin can't continue the war. Now Trump is about to give them the tools to finish him.

Ukrainian drones destroy another Russian oil refinery.

by Rod D. Martin
September 30, 2025

Russia has been described as “a gas station masquerading as a country”. But its once-mighty oil empire — the beating heart of its economy, its military machine, and its geopolitical leverage — is collapsing before the world’s eyes.

If Putin doesn’t make peace, and fast, Donald Trump means to push him over the edge.

In just a few short months, Ukrainian drone strikes have destroyed 17% of Russia’s oil refining capacity. That is not a typo. Nearly a fifth of all Russian oil-processing infrastructure has gone up in smoke. The International Energy Agency (IEA) confirms Russia’s effective oil export price has plunged to just $35 per barrel — less than half of what the Kremlin needs to fund its war, its welfare state, or even basic government operations.

Putin needs $10 billion a month just to fund the war. That’s going away, fast. And you can only drain your foreign currency and gold reserves for so long.

As this death spiral accelerates, President Trump has begun delivery of 3,350 long-range ERAM missiles to pump up the pressure. They’re cheaper than ATACMS and Storm Shadow with similar range: more bang for the buck. And the bang is hitting Putin’s oil production, refining, and transport, hard.

Trump Sends Thousands of "Cheap and Powerful" Long Range Missiles to Ukraine

Now, President Zelensky has asked Trump for Tomahawk missiles with a 2,000-kilometer range, capable of reaching Moscow (fair’s fair: Russia hits Kiev every day), but also targets as distant as Murmansk, Yekaterinburg and Chelyabinsk: virtually all of European Russia. And in a shift that surprised most people but shouldn’t have, Trump — whose long-stated opposition to strikes deep into Russian territory is well known — has signaled support.

Why?