I just wonder if all the black pillers are right. They seem to be predicting that Republicans are going to lose the House and lose the Senate and the Trump boom will be aborted in its infancy. Just sayin' ...
It is certainly possible that we lose the midterms, because the party in the White House almost always loses the midterms, as Reagan did in 1982. But it's harder to see how they think that would end the gathering boom, any more than it did in 1983. They can't undo the now-permanent tax cuts without a President to sign that. Ditto for re-regulation. They can harass the President but they can't legislate. And he's planned for that from the beginning.
Having said that, I'm pretty optimistic about the midterms. First, what I describe here will have an impact before November (though early voting cuts into that). Second, it's very hard to see any math by which the Democrats take the Senate, while the quality of Republican Senators will go up measurably. And third, if you actually look at the House races in play, Democrats would have to win over 2/3 of all of them to eek out a very slim majority. What are the odds of that?
Now you can look at Polymarket and see what they think the odds are. But Polymarket said that the odds against Brexit were 98% WHEN THE POLLS CLOSED. I haven't forgotten that.
Success will bring us together once it's so overwhelmingly glaring that everyone just assumes the media is lying. That's exactly what happened in 1983-1984.
Even worse than that. There were only three networks, no one had cable, and social media didn't exist. Most newspapers were liberal too. So all we heard was the constant drumbeat of how Reagan was failing...even after it became 49-state-victory-level obvious that was not true.
Four years later in my first college economics class I was still being taught how the Reagan boom was a myth. We had just come off of a year of 7% GDP growth.
I don’t have tons of subscriptions, but yours is by far the best bang for the buck. I used to resent having to pay for information…COVID changed all that. If someone truly cares about having the right information, I would encourage him to put his money where his mouth is. There’s no better money spent than your analysis, Rod.
I just wonder if all the black pillers are right. They seem to be predicting that Republicans are going to lose the House and lose the Senate and the Trump boom will be aborted in its infancy. Just sayin' ...
It is certainly possible that we lose the midterms, because the party in the White House almost always loses the midterms, as Reagan did in 1982. But it's harder to see how they think that would end the gathering boom, any more than it did in 1983. They can't undo the now-permanent tax cuts without a President to sign that. Ditto for re-regulation. They can harass the President but they can't legislate. And he's planned for that from the beginning.
Having said that, I'm pretty optimistic about the midterms. First, what I describe here will have an impact before November (though early voting cuts into that). Second, it's very hard to see any math by which the Democrats take the Senate, while the quality of Republican Senators will go up measurably. And third, if you actually look at the House races in play, Democrats would have to win over 2/3 of all of them to eek out a very slim majority. What are the odds of that?
Now you can look at Polymarket and see what they think the odds are. But Polymarket said that the odds against Brexit were 98% WHEN THE POLLS CLOSED. I haven't forgotten that.
Trump said success would bring us together, he was wrong but at least we will have success.
Success will bring us together once it's so overwhelmingly glaring that everyone just assumes the media is lying. That's exactly what happened in 1983-1984.
But was there this overwhelming mental illness on the left at the time? Or the 24/7 algorithmic manipulation? I hope you’re right.
Even worse than that. There were only three networks, no one had cable, and social media didn't exist. Most newspapers were liberal too. So all we heard was the constant drumbeat of how Reagan was failing...even after it became 49-state-victory-level obvious that was not true.
Four years later in my first college economics class I was still being taught how the Reagan boom was a myth. We had just come off of a year of 7% GDP growth.
I don’t have tons of subscriptions, but yours is by far the best bang for the buck. I used to resent having to pay for information…COVID changed all that. If someone truly cares about having the right information, I would encourage him to put his money where his mouth is. There’s no better money spent than your analysis, Rod.
Thank you sir! That means a lot!