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Teri Johnson's avatar

What are the pros and cons about Alberta becoming a US Territory instead of a state? Would that be an option to consider?

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Chris's avatar

Rod, thank you for this. As an Albertan, I think your proposal is not just a good one, but an essential outcome for future Alberta prosperity, as well as incredibly timely for reasons I’ll explain below.

While you are correct that the Quebec Secession Reference and the subsequent Clarity Act provide a path to independence, they are actually a poison pill on liberation. The reason being that they also require a successful “negotiation” out of Confederation. And not just with the Feds. Or with the Feds and the provinces. But with EVERY STAKEHOLDER. This means, to use an absurd but plausible example, the negotiation could fail because a First Nation band in Newfoundland believes they were not adequately consulted. The idea that Canada would in good faith negotiate Alberta’s exit is a fantasy. And what is so frustrating is that the current crop of Alberta secession leaders point to the Clarity Act as the roadmap to our exit, when in reality it is our Constitutional prison. That said, there is another route. But time is of the essence.

As you note, the U.S. Constitution allows for accession to your Union as a new state. This comes into conflict with the Clarity Act and the Canadian Constitution. In normal times, before the U.S. would even entertain Alberta statehood it would require Alberta to jump through the Canadian constitutional hoops - which as I said are an impossibility. However, the current President is less interested in international norms, and more interested into Manifest Destiny. The path I see is as follows: (1) Alberta holds a citizen referendum to engage with the U.S. on joining as the 51st state, (2) Alberta and the U.S. negotiate the terms, (3) Alberta holds a second referendum on those terms, (4) assuming success, Alberta formally submits its proposal, and the U.S. admits Alberta as a state with a brief interim period, and (5) the combination of Alberta becoming sovereign territory under the U.S. Constitution, plus the moral suasion of the U.S. backed by the democratic process of multiple referendums, forces a negotiated exit for Alberta (similar to how Brexit played out). I have spent a great deal of time thinking about Alberta secession, and this is the only way I see to create the leverage we need to escape.

But for this to come to fruition, Alberta needs engagement by the U.S. And that leads to my question for you as a thought leader and well-connected American: How do we get the U.S., and particularly the Trump Administration, to engage directly with Alberta? You lay out most of the key reasons why the U.S. ought to be interested in Alberta, though I will add a few more. First, it eliminates the trade deficit with Canada overnight (something that seems to be of particular interest to Trump). Second, Alberta has significant rare earth mineral potential (proven and potential). Third, if you believe in the strategic importance of data centres, our combination of cool climate and prolific natural gas reserves make us an ideal place for massive investment in this sector. As for Alberta, one of the key points you missed is the mobility rights to work in the U.S. - particularly for our talented young people who are already flocking south. And while you touched on it, I think a major part of the sales pitch to Albertans is the strong protection of state autonomy in the U.S. Constitution.

I ask you the above question not in a general sense, but very specifically: how do you see us getting this ball rolling on your side of the border? Who can we advocate to who will listen? I and many of my friends and colleagues are willing to get to work on this, but we need some help getting pointed in the right direction. Your views would be invaluable.

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