U.S. Tariffs May Drive China’s Economy Into a Depression, Experts Say
"Beijing will have to make a deal at some point, or this recession does turn into a depression.” Rod Martin, founder and CEO of Martin Capital, told The Epoch Times.
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by Terri Wu
May 8, 2025
Li, a garment exporter in southern China, said the United States’ steep tariffs have dealt a devastating blow to his business.
The business owner from Guangzhou Province said his orders from the United States “evaporated” as the levies escalated.
Li is not alone. Most Chinese exporters are in the same boat. On social media platforms in China, they discuss the problem. A few said they were immune from the impact of U.S. tariffs owing to their irreplaceable products.
These exporters reported that U.S. orders formed the majority of their business — and were the most lucrative. Without the American market, no other region, including Europe, can fill the void.
Exports had been among the few bright spots during China’s bumpy economic recovery since late 2022, when the regime ended its strict COVID-19 lockdown measures. Now it is being hit hard by tariffs.
Beijing’s official economic data show that China’s economy has still been growing, albeit at a slower pace. Some experts dispute these figures — they say China’s economy is already in recession, and U.S. tariffs may make things a lot worse.
“China has a real problem,” Rod Martin, founder and CEO of Martin Capital, told The Epoch Times.
Beijing will have trouble backing down from its standoff with the United States, he said, because Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping “has clearly created his whole persona around being the leader who can stand up to America.”
Given the irreplaceable nature of the U.S. consumer market in China’s export-driven economy, Martin said, Beijing will “have to make a deal at some point, or this recession does turn into a depression.”
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