Brilliant geopolitical mind and refugee from Hungarian Communism George Friedman looks at Orbán's loss, Magyar's victory, and what it means for Europe, NATO, and the future.
I was told that the election in Hungary that saw the ouster of Victor Orban after 16 years in power swung the country to the left. From Newsweek,
Hungary’s New PM Takes Aim at EU with Tough Border Policy.
Newsweek reports,
Hungary’s Prime Minister-elect Péter Magyar has vowed to strengthen his country’s borders, suggesting his defeat of EU‑sceptic Viktor Orbán will not lead to a policy shift toward Brussels on migration.
European leaders welcomed Magyar’s achievement in ending the 16-year rule of Orbán. While Magyar has pledged to reengage with the EU, he said his government’s plans do not include implementing the EU’s new migration and asylum pact.
I know nothing about Hungarian politics. Perhaps Magyar will cave in the end. But I was told that Orban’s defeat would result in Hungary being overrun with millions of non-European “asylum” seekers, in punishment for past defiance of the European Union (EU). Perhaps that will still happen.
But this Magyar isn’t sounding soft, yet.
Mentioning the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, Magyar said in a speech Wednesday that Hungary had a strict immigration policy and “it will not accept any pact”. It would keep its southern border fence and “patch up the holes that are there now,” he added.
“We really want to protect our country and Europe from illegal immigration,” Magyar said, adding that the conservative Tisza party he leads “will pursue a strict illegal immigration policy.”
Interesting take. The ideas around greater cooperation of countries of *Central* and Eastern Europe (hilarious how that distinction always mattered to the Czechs, in particular) is not new, of course.
You got mighty that Russian power to the East, mightier rulers still in Germany, and France to the West, and a permanent threat from the Ottomans in the South. So of course you are not going to make it as a bunch of tiny units. Which is why all these countries were enjoying brief moments of independence but spent most of their history in some sort of subjucation to the mightier powers. (such as Austro-Hungarian Empire)
So the idea of getting together and being stronger that way makes sense. A medieval congress of Central European kings that promoted regional trade and cooperation was documented back in 1335 when they met in Visegraad.
Then it was resurrected after the Berlin Wall fell. The Czechoslovakian (later Czech) President Vaclav Havel was a big proponent of the so called Visegraad group which included Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary. The official founding document of this entity was signed in 1991. It was exactly this idea of 'stronger together' materialized.
Except, at the time, building a regional body when all these countries wanted was to get as far away from the Soviet influence as possible was just not seen as diplomatic. Between hitching themselves to NATO and EU and building some new structure without any power or financial backing was just not going to work. The block moved somewhat together through the EU access negotiations as well as joining NATO.
But it had no chance of becoming anything because the Visegraad group worked very hard to not appear like they are ganging up on anybody, they were just desperate to join the EU and NATO and that took precedent over anything else.
This article gives only a simple hand-waving to the potential for Magyar to fold under EU pressures regarding immigration. This is potentially an existential threat to Hungary’s national integrity, and would also represent one less ally resisting the threat of so-called multiculturalism and diluting the efforts to bring some sanity to these policies. No? I’d like to see your analysis of the near-term and long-term potential effects of Magyar’s Eurocentric leanings. That seems to conflict at least in part with some of the points made in this article.
I was just in Budapest for a week from March 15 to 22. I was on a mission trip with my church and spent much of my time with younger Hungarians. Indeed they are a very intelligent group of people who seem to have been held back by geography and nasty neighbors.
We were asked not to talk too much about politics. But I did ask a couple men in their late thirties. One said that Magyar was EU sympathetic but not controlled or owned by the EU. The other liked Orban but felt the country could survive Magyar and maybe come out ahead in the long run.
I’ve been reading lots of reports on X that Magyar is actually more aligned with Orban on immigration and that maybe they pulled a switcheroo on the EU. Let’s hope so.
Another View
Power Line
DID Hungary move to the left?
April 16, 2026 by Bill Glahn
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2026/04/did-hungary-move-to-the-left.php
I was told that the election in Hungary that saw the ouster of Victor Orban after 16 years in power swung the country to the left. From Newsweek,
Hungary’s New PM Takes Aim at EU with Tough Border Policy.
Newsweek reports,
Hungary’s Prime Minister-elect Péter Magyar has vowed to strengthen his country’s borders, suggesting his defeat of EU‑sceptic Viktor Orbán will not lead to a policy shift toward Brussels on migration.
European leaders welcomed Magyar’s achievement in ending the 16-year rule of Orbán. While Magyar has pledged to reengage with the EU, he said his government’s plans do not include implementing the EU’s new migration and asylum pact.
I know nothing about Hungarian politics. Perhaps Magyar will cave in the end. But I was told that Orban’s defeat would result in Hungary being overrun with millions of non-European “asylum” seekers, in punishment for past defiance of the European Union (EU). Perhaps that will still happen.
But this Magyar isn’t sounding soft, yet.
Mentioning the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, Magyar said in a speech Wednesday that Hungary had a strict immigration policy and “it will not accept any pact”. It would keep its southern border fence and “patch up the holes that are there now,” he added.
“We really want to protect our country and Europe from illegal immigration,” Magyar said, adding that the conservative Tisza party he leads “will pursue a strict illegal immigration policy.”
(Snip)
I would have preferred Orbán winning BUT lets see what happens.
Also George Friedman is a Very Sharp Guy (been reading him for quite some time.
Great Mr. Rod. Thank you.
Interesting take. The ideas around greater cooperation of countries of *Central* and Eastern Europe (hilarious how that distinction always mattered to the Czechs, in particular) is not new, of course.
You got mighty that Russian power to the East, mightier rulers still in Germany, and France to the West, and a permanent threat from the Ottomans in the South. So of course you are not going to make it as a bunch of tiny units. Which is why all these countries were enjoying brief moments of independence but spent most of their history in some sort of subjucation to the mightier powers. (such as Austro-Hungarian Empire)
So the idea of getting together and being stronger that way makes sense. A medieval congress of Central European kings that promoted regional trade and cooperation was documented back in 1335 when they met in Visegraad.
Then it was resurrected after the Berlin Wall fell. The Czechoslovakian (later Czech) President Vaclav Havel was a big proponent of the so called Visegraad group which included Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary. The official founding document of this entity was signed in 1991. It was exactly this idea of 'stronger together' materialized.
Except, at the time, building a regional body when all these countries wanted was to get as far away from the Soviet influence as possible was just not seen as diplomatic. Between hitching themselves to NATO and EU and building some new structure without any power or financial backing was just not going to work. The block moved somewhat together through the EU access negotiations as well as joining NATO.
But it had no chance of becoming anything because the Visegraad group worked very hard to not appear like they are ganging up on anybody, they were just desperate to join the EU and NATO and that took precedent over anything else.
This article gives only a simple hand-waving to the potential for Magyar to fold under EU pressures regarding immigration. This is potentially an existential threat to Hungary’s national integrity, and would also represent one less ally resisting the threat of so-called multiculturalism and diluting the efforts to bring some sanity to these policies. No? I’d like to see your analysis of the near-term and long-term potential effects of Magyar’s Eurocentric leanings. That seems to conflict at least in part with some of the points made in this article.
I was just in Budapest for a week from March 15 to 22. I was on a mission trip with my church and spent much of my time with younger Hungarians. Indeed they are a very intelligent group of people who seem to have been held back by geography and nasty neighbors.
We were asked not to talk too much about politics. But I did ask a couple men in their late thirties. One said that Magyar was EU sympathetic but not controlled or owned by the EU. The other liked Orban but felt the country could survive Magyar and maybe come out ahead in the long run.
I’ve been reading lots of reports on X that Magyar is actually more aligned with Orban on immigration and that maybe they pulled a switcheroo on the EU. Let’s hope so.