Could Trump’s Tariffs Help Democratize China?
By forcing China to nurture its middle class, President Trump’s tariffs might open the way for political change of the sort Western leaders expected to see in China decades ago.
by Yi Fuxian
February 3, 2025
Assessments of US President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to impose high tariffs on Chinese imports tend to focus on their likely economic consequences. But the tariffs’ impact on China’s politics might prove to be far more profound.
Western leaders long believed that China’s integration into the global economy would naturally lead to the rise of a strong middle class that would push for democratization. In Taiwan, for example, the rise of the middle class preceded the democratic transition, which began in 1987. At the time, per capita GDP ($5,325) was already approaching the high-income threshold of $6,000 – a level it surpassed the following year ($6,338) – and household disposable income accounted for 67% of GDP.
But the robust and pro-democratic middle class US leaders anticipated never materialized in China, not least because of the country’s one-child policy. Because the share of…
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