Do not mistake what I'm saying for a claim that Mexico doesn't have all the known problems. I'm just saying that the trajectory is very positive. There's a lot of opportunity. There's also a lot of need for cleanup. The more the opportunity develops, the more people will have incentive to clean it up.
But that's a decades-long process, not a months- or years-long process.
As I said to another subscriber, do not mistake what I'm saying for a claim that Mexico doesn't have all the known problems. I'm just saying that the trajectory is very positive. There's a lot of opportunity. There's also a lot of need for cleanup. The more the opportunity develops, the more people will have incentive to clean it up.
But that's a decades-long process, not a months- or years-long process.
Nevertheless, on balance, the cartels are easier to deal with than the CCP. But that's another discussion entirely.
This optimistic picture would be accurate and bode well for the future if not for extraordinary obstacles constantly thrown in the path of progress. Whether it be a small-time judicial appointee of a former president striking down fully legal tariffs or a sub-optimal midterm result leading to impeachment proceedings, the desire of so many in power to see this president fail is seemingly insurmountable. Your analysis would be spot on if not for the irrational emotionalism and concomitant obstructionism of the political class.
Well as to tariffs, take heart, because the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs, but no others. Hence, by implication, they upheld the President's powers to impose tariffs, constrained only by the extraordinarily broad powers Congress has already granted him over the last century, and that constitutes an enormous defeat for the plaintiffs. The Enemedia doesn't understand that, or doesn't want to.
"The Supreme Court Has Overturned Trump's Tariffs: What He Can Do Now"
It is my sense that Trump spent every minute of his four years in exile, along with the smartest people he could assemble, plotting out every move and countermove of every day of this second term. There's really nothing to compare it to in American history, not even FDR's first year. We won't get everything we want. But we never will in this life. What we're getting is extraordinary, and fast.
I'll add one other potential Mexican manufacturing opportunity. Petrochemicals and plastics.
Currently the PRC makes almost all the cheap plastic products that are in your average Walmart or Home Depot. Everything from drain pipes to toothbrushes via toys and nylons. Even if it doesn't do the final molding, a PRC factory made the plastic or a precursor. There are already reports (see e.g. https://substack.com/@drmonkey/note/c-242994386 ) that the PRC is cutting exports of these kinds of product. It is cutting them because, obviously, the feed stocks of base plastics require oil and the PRC is not getting as much as it used to thanks to the Iran war.
A Mexican/American plastics industry has a supply chain that is both shorter and far more secure from world events
Yes, and it's very much on the Administration's radar. They are taking some reasonably remarkable steps with regard to other parts of the supply chain: rare earths, shipbuilding, chip fabs, etc. This has not gone unnoticed, and we can more easily afford the oil.
"5. EU Chamber of Commerce report on export controls - The EU Chamber of Commerce in China is out with a new report titled Exporting Control: China’s New Strategic Toolkit. It is a sobering read on the ways the PRC has built out a sophisticated and increasingly effective export control regime, and it was written before yesterday’s announcement of the Regulations of the People’s Republic of China on Countering Foreign Improper Extraterritorial Jurisdiction中华人民共和国反外国不当域外管辖条例.
One of the key goals of “dual circulation” it is worth remembering is to more tightly bind foreign companies to PRC supply chains, and the rules announced yesterday make it even harder for foreign firms to move their supply chains out of China. "
President Trump clealry understands this Chicom policy and is countering it. The Iran war helps drive that process
UK got Socialism in all its guises, getting ‘equality’ means lower down the ladder of life/health/culture
"Equal sharing of misery," Churchill said.
I worked at a couple Mexican factories at my old job. Nice, hardworking people. But the neighborhoods were a bit scary.
We heard a big splash about six weeks ago concerning taken down the cartels. I wonder if we’re still making progress on that front. It’s gone quiet.
Do not mistake what I'm saying for a claim that Mexico doesn't have all the known problems. I'm just saying that the trajectory is very positive. There's a lot of opportunity. There's also a lot of need for cleanup. The more the opportunity develops, the more people will have incentive to clean it up.
But that's a decades-long process, not a months- or years-long process.
Good analysis, but what about the 900 lbs gorilla in the room - the corruption & cartels??
As I said to another subscriber, do not mistake what I'm saying for a claim that Mexico doesn't have all the known problems. I'm just saying that the trajectory is very positive. There's a lot of opportunity. There's also a lot of need for cleanup. The more the opportunity develops, the more people will have incentive to clean it up.
But that's a decades-long process, not a months- or years-long process.
Nevertheless, on balance, the cartels are easier to deal with than the CCP. But that's another discussion entirely.
This optimistic picture would be accurate and bode well for the future if not for extraordinary obstacles constantly thrown in the path of progress. Whether it be a small-time judicial appointee of a former president striking down fully legal tariffs or a sub-optimal midterm result leading to impeachment proceedings, the desire of so many in power to see this president fail is seemingly insurmountable. Your analysis would be spot on if not for the irrational emotionalism and concomitant obstructionism of the political class.
Well as to tariffs, take heart, because the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs, but no others. Hence, by implication, they upheld the President's powers to impose tariffs, constrained only by the extraordinarily broad powers Congress has already granted him over the last century, and that constitutes an enormous defeat for the plaintiffs. The Enemedia doesn't understand that, or doesn't want to.
"The Supreme Court Has Overturned Trump's Tariffs: What He Can Do Now"
https://www.rodmartin.org/p/the-supreme-court-has-overturned
It is my sense that Trump spent every minute of his four years in exile, along with the smartest people he could assemble, plotting out every move and countermove of every day of this second term. There's really nothing to compare it to in American history, not even FDR's first year. We won't get everything we want. But we never will in this life. What we're getting is extraordinary, and fast.
I'll add one other potential Mexican manufacturing opportunity. Petrochemicals and plastics.
Currently the PRC makes almost all the cheap plastic products that are in your average Walmart or Home Depot. Everything from drain pipes to toothbrushes via toys and nylons. Even if it doesn't do the final molding, a PRC factory made the plastic or a precursor. There are already reports (see e.g. https://substack.com/@drmonkey/note/c-242994386 ) that the PRC is cutting exports of these kinds of product. It is cutting them because, obviously, the feed stocks of base plastics require oil and the PRC is not getting as much as it used to thanks to the Iran war.
A Mexican/American plastics industry has a supply chain that is both shorter and far more secure from world events
Yes, and it's very much on the Administration's radar. They are taking some reasonably remarkable steps with regard to other parts of the supply chain: rare earths, shipbuilding, chip fabs, etc. This has not gone unnoticed, and we can more easily afford the oil.
Coincidentally one of the next things to pop up in my substack feed was this
https://sinocism.com/p/xis-four-point-proposal-on-safeguarding
Quote:
"5. EU Chamber of Commerce report on export controls - The EU Chamber of Commerce in China is out with a new report titled Exporting Control: China’s New Strategic Toolkit. It is a sobering read on the ways the PRC has built out a sophisticated and increasingly effective export control regime, and it was written before yesterday’s announcement of the Regulations of the People’s Republic of China on Countering Foreign Improper Extraterritorial Jurisdiction中华人民共和国反外国不当域外管辖条例.
One of the key goals of “dual circulation” it is worth remembering is to more tightly bind foreign companies to PRC supply chains, and the rules announced yesterday make it even harder for foreign firms to move their supply chains out of China. "
President Trump clealry understands this Chicom policy and is countering it. The Iran war helps drive that process
Read the book, “The Invisible Coup” if you think Mexico is a good partner.
Did I say "good"? I said (1) happening regardless, and (2) better than the CCP.