What Past Empires Tell Us About the Future

Four maps that highlight what parts of the world looked like in the past, and that point the way toward what may come in the future.

by George Friedman
March 27, 2017

Spanish essayist George Santayana once wrote, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it,” but there is a problem with this famous and witty line. Studying history has little practical utility in averting past outcomes. We are doomed to repeat history whether we know it or not.

The value in knowing history is not that one might prevent its recurrence. Its value is that it allows you to identify those things that don’t change and that shape events, no matter the year on the calendar. It is not quite as clever a turn of phrase, but it would be more accurate to say: To predict the future, one must understand the past.

Part of what gives our analysis such insight into the future is its grounding in history. So today, we thought we might pull back the curtain slightly and showcase four maps that highlight what parts of the world looked like in the past, and that point the way toward what may come in the future.

China