The Foreign Policy Implications of Aging
As Yogi Berra famously said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
by Patrick Cox
March 9, 2018
Trend Reversal: The American “Energy Miracle”
Many professions rely on mathematical models, extending current trends into the future to help make plans. However, trends may change in entirely unexpected ways. Too often, an exogenous variable, something not accounted for in the model, will completely ruin a prediction. It could be something that on the surface appears to be trivial, such as a surprising technological improvement.
Advances in fracking, for example, embarrassed numerous forecasters who confidently predicted sky-high petroleum prices and a rapid shift to alternative energies. The impact of technological innovation is not limited to prices and products, though. It has a way of expanding far beyond obvious and easily measurable consequences.
Increased US and Canadian energy production has fundamentally changed the political dynamic between the West and the petrostates. Higher domestic production has not just reduced America’s vulnerability to foreign…
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