So Who's Going to Win the House in November?

by Rod D. Martin
August 9, 2018

So who's going to win the House in November? And for that matter, who's going to win the Senate?

The Wall Street Journal makes a good case for a big Republican defeat this morning in "The Red Wave Illusion". They have history on their side: the party in the White House almost always loses in the mid-terms -- 2002 being the only exception in memory -- and certainly the OH-12 race was a lot closer than it should have been, at least superficially. Moreover, I have been sounding the alarm about an enthusiasm gap -- Democrats more fired up to actually turn out and vote than Republicans -- since late last year. Mid-terms are low-turnout elections, so if one side is more excited than the other, it tends to win. Plus, Democrats remain ahead on the generic Congressional ballot, which certainly isn't a good thing.

Still, I have my doubts. Rather strong ones, actually, just as I did at this time two years ago. And guess who got it right in 2016. It wasn't the Wall Str…