Senate Update, Oct. 4, 2018 - The Kavanaugh Surge

by Rod D. Martin
October 4, 2018

ANOTHER SENATE UPDATE: Yesterday I told you that North Dakota is now likely out of reach for Democrats, with Republican Kevin Cramer now beating incumbent Democrat Sen. Heidi Heitkamp by an incredible 12 points: 53% to 41%.

Generally speaking, if an incumbent is under 50%, they're in serious trouble even if they're leading. And generally speaking, if a challenger is above 50%, the incumbent is toast.

Now, two new big moves. John McLaughlin has Dem incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) down by 8 points, 52-44. That race has been tied for most of the last several months, and this polling tracks with what I told you earlier this week about the moves we're seeing among married women strongly against the Democrats.

But elsewhere, New Jersey is now legitimately a tossup. This from FiveThirtyEight, which cites new polls from Fairleigh Dickinson (43-37) as well as Vox Populi (which has it a 4-point race) and Stockton University (which has it a 2-point race), all o…