I get a lot of letters. I certainly did this morning regarding our piece on Chinese dark money stirring opposition to U.S. data centers. Here's my response.
Suppose China is providing an enormous amount of components for AI centers which is profitable for them. And, suppose China's input regard US AI centers is merely to get the opposition in the US to settle for something they would have opposed otherwise?? Or, did I read too much Mad Magazine Spy against Spy series?
The Chinese don't have anything we want for our data centers. Our chips are much better, though the gap is closing. The components are not the play. What they do want is to drive us from the AI field in the way that Europe is willfully irrelevant, and then they dominate everything in the way that they currently dominate rare earth elements refining.
A question, to which I daresay you don't have the answer, since it would involve going inside someone else's head.
I am sure you are aware of Robert Bryce, who writes on Substack concerning energy issues. I am an admirer, not least of all because he has a knack for visually presenting information--full disclosure: I prefer it that way--regarding energy issues.
In the course of doing that, he has expanded his commentary to the issue of community rejection of contemporary technology. He began with solar and wind--which I consider ridiculous boondoggles--and so at first I did not mind.
More recently he has started doing so about data centers. Now if he did so in a value-neutral way, I'd be fine with it. But I feel a sense of triumphalism about it--no different than when he started in about wind and solar, but I didn't notice it so much then, since I agreed with him--and I am concerned--the more so that I've yet to read any discussion in his work of the provenance of this opposition, which Bryce portrays as strictly grassroots, with no discussion of the PRC's possible influence.
Bryce is a smart guy and knows a lot about energy issues, the more so that his claims are based entirely on publicly-available data. But on this stuff I'm starting to get the sense there's more going on. But I am reluctant to challenge him directly.
What, if anything, would you suggest I might do--aside, of course, from, "hey, grow a pair and take him on!" :-)
I love Robert Bryce! I don't always agree with him, but he's excellent!
Solar is not a complete boondoggle, but it makes vastly more sense in space than on a planetary surface with a dense atmosphere and a day and night cycle. Wind is positively evil. Those things are just bird blenders. If these fake environmentalists actually cared about the environment, they'd be clamoring to tear every one of them down.
So back to my occasional disagreement with Robert. He's just wrong: the Chinese dark money and propaganda flooding into this issue is very, very real. And yes, he's smart as a whip on energy, but energy is just one aspect of a data center, and that is not his main area of expertise.
I doubt there's anything nefarious going on with him though.
Thanks. I know we can never truly know the heart of another, but you are very reassuring.
Incidentally I totally agree with you on space-based solar. Jerry Pournelle was a great advocate and there's an absolutely immense amount of engineering and other research on the topic, mostly by NASA, from back in the 1960s. At some point all the reports--there's thousands of pages--were scanned by some brave soul and put online. I don't know the website anymore but it's out there.
Interesting discussion. I spent 30 years in economic development. To say that the public often has no idea what they are talking about would be an understatement. To say that politicians are both ignorant and perfidious would also be an understatement. We continue to wrestle with the effects of both; too often exacerbated by appeal to celebrity.
It is also true that the data centers of last year and the AI compute centers of today are completely different species.
They're not really that different, aside from some of them (but not all) being a lot bigger. If a community doesn't want them to impact local water or electricity, the solution is simple: use air cooling and require the company building the data center to supply its own power.
As you know, that multiplies the number of good local jobs, and as systems become more efficient, probably puts a lot of extra power into the grid, thus bringing down prices.
This really doesn't have to be hard.
BTW, Microsoft is already doing this by signing a deal for Constellation to bring Three Mile Island Unit One back online, with the company buying 100% of its output. They aren't going to need all that in the long run, but they won't burden the community in the meantime.
How do the data centers we've been producing/using for decades compare to the AI data centers? Are the AI data centers just bigger? Or is there something more? Also, once the construction is complete, will AI data centers actually have very many emloyees?
A data center is a data center. Some of these will be bigger. Some of them won't. Jobs range from around 20 up to as much as 300 in the really big ones. And these are $90,000 to $200,000 jobs, so they make a difference in the community.
The main complaint I hear is water use. The thing is, even if you build a data center that uses water -- they don't have to -- you normally build a closed cycle that draws water at the beginning and then just recirculates it. This simply is not a meaningful burden.
Nevertheless, you can substitute electricity for water and run chillers. That's the way nearly all data centers operate in the southwest, but not only there. That puts a bit more burden on the grid, but the operators benefit from having an independent power supply, so it's an easy compromise (if any compromise is even needed) to make them bring their own power. That's exactly what's happening at Three Mile Island, where Constellation is bringing Unit One back online, and Microsoft has already signed a 20-year contract to buy all of the power it generates.
In the long run, that probably cuts local energy prices because as systems become more efficient, Microsoft is going to end up selling a good bit of that power back to the community, and supply and demand will make everyone's bill cheaper.
Your response is excellent. It put into words many things I already thought. Our county is grappling with new data centers and fortune the county council is making thoughtful decisions so far.
People reflexively oppose every new technology, even while those technologies invariably make our lives better. But it's gotten a lot worse since we spent two generations teaching Critical Theory instead of critical thinking.
I hope more people like you get the word out. The Chicken-Littles are screaming bloody murder. You would believe the insults and pushback I got on X when I said it was the Chinese and Russians who are poisoning us against data centers. It was a full block day, if you know what I mean. 🥸
A good explanation of what's happening with data centers. I think a good part of the problem we're having may include a couple of things: a lack of transparency on the part of local officials dealing with the proposals, and a lack of a good explanation of what's involved on the part of the companies making the proposals.
Someone from the company or group making a data center proposal should be laying out what will be involved in the construction and operation, much like you just did. And the local officials should preface any negotiations with a public meeting giving the proposers the chance to explain it to the local citizens. I think most opposition would dissolve if the air were cleared up front in this manner. I say most because there will always be an activist or two trying to muddy things up.
“Grass will grown in the streets.” —Jay Gould said about Jefferson. I’ve been on many school field trips to Jefferson. Thank you, Mr. Martin, for sharing your wisdom.
I took a look at Jefferson TX on Google Earth. It looks like it is about as far up the Big Cyprus Bayou as a shallow draft steamboat might have gone. It connects to the Red River somewhere near Shreveport, but would have been a long and winding route that might have been difficult at low water. Steamboats were important transportation infrastructure from the early 19th century to the turn of the 20th century. We no longer think of routes like that as transportation corridors. Life moves on. Economies change and adapt.
Thanks for spelling it out. I was alarmed about data centers and am glad to have learned more.
Suppose China is providing an enormous amount of components for AI centers which is profitable for them. And, suppose China's input regard US AI centers is merely to get the opposition in the US to settle for something they would have opposed otherwise?? Or, did I read too much Mad Magazine Spy against Spy series?
The Chinese don't have anything we want for our data centers. Our chips are much better, though the gap is closing. The components are not the play. What they do want is to drive us from the AI field in the way that Europe is willfully irrelevant, and then they dominate everything in the way that they currently dominate rare earth elements refining.
Thanks Rod
A most excellent and informative essay.
A question, to which I daresay you don't have the answer, since it would involve going inside someone else's head.
I am sure you are aware of Robert Bryce, who writes on Substack concerning energy issues. I am an admirer, not least of all because he has a knack for visually presenting information--full disclosure: I prefer it that way--regarding energy issues.
In the course of doing that, he has expanded his commentary to the issue of community rejection of contemporary technology. He began with solar and wind--which I consider ridiculous boondoggles--and so at first I did not mind.
More recently he has started doing so about data centers. Now if he did so in a value-neutral way, I'd be fine with it. But I feel a sense of triumphalism about it--no different than when he started in about wind and solar, but I didn't notice it so much then, since I agreed with him--and I am concerned--the more so that I've yet to read any discussion in his work of the provenance of this opposition, which Bryce portrays as strictly grassroots, with no discussion of the PRC's possible influence.
Bryce is a smart guy and knows a lot about energy issues, the more so that his claims are based entirely on publicly-available data. But on this stuff I'm starting to get the sense there's more going on. But I am reluctant to challenge him directly.
What, if anything, would you suggest I might do--aside, of course, from, "hey, grow a pair and take him on!" :-)
I love Robert Bryce! I don't always agree with him, but he's excellent!
Solar is not a complete boondoggle, but it makes vastly more sense in space than on a planetary surface with a dense atmosphere and a day and night cycle. Wind is positively evil. Those things are just bird blenders. If these fake environmentalists actually cared about the environment, they'd be clamoring to tear every one of them down.
So back to my occasional disagreement with Robert. He's just wrong: the Chinese dark money and propaganda flooding into this issue is very, very real. And yes, he's smart as a whip on energy, but energy is just one aspect of a data center, and that is not his main area of expertise.
I doubt there's anything nefarious going on with him though.
Thanks. I know we can never truly know the heart of another, but you are very reassuring.
Incidentally I totally agree with you on space-based solar. Jerry Pournelle was a great advocate and there's an absolutely immense amount of engineering and other research on the topic, mostly by NASA, from back in the 1960s. At some point all the reports--there's thousands of pages--were scanned by some brave soul and put online. I don't know the website anymore but it's out there.
And of course...there's this :-)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5VIRa-E0BI&list=RDL5VIRa-E0BI
I always get choked up listening to it...but who knows? Maybe in my lifetime...
It's coming. Elon's plan to power countless orbital data centers with Tesla-made solar will be a big step in that direction.
Interesting discussion. I spent 30 years in economic development. To say that the public often has no idea what they are talking about would be an understatement. To say that politicians are both ignorant and perfidious would also be an understatement. We continue to wrestle with the effects of both; too often exacerbated by appeal to celebrity.
It is also true that the data centers of last year and the AI compute centers of today are completely different species.
They're not really that different, aside from some of them (but not all) being a lot bigger. If a community doesn't want them to impact local water or electricity, the solution is simple: use air cooling and require the company building the data center to supply its own power.
As you know, that multiplies the number of good local jobs, and as systems become more efficient, probably puts a lot of extra power into the grid, thus bringing down prices.
This really doesn't have to be hard.
BTW, Microsoft is already doing this by signing a deal for Constellation to bring Three Mile Island Unit One back online, with the company buying 100% of its output. They aren't going to need all that in the long run, but they won't burden the community in the meantime.
How do the data centers we've been producing/using for decades compare to the AI data centers? Are the AI data centers just bigger? Or is there something more? Also, once the construction is complete, will AI data centers actually have very many emloyees?
A data center is a data center. Some of these will be bigger. Some of them won't. Jobs range from around 20 up to as much as 300 in the really big ones. And these are $90,000 to $200,000 jobs, so they make a difference in the community.
The main complaint I hear is water use. The thing is, even if you build a data center that uses water -- they don't have to -- you normally build a closed cycle that draws water at the beginning and then just recirculates it. This simply is not a meaningful burden.
Nevertheless, you can substitute electricity for water and run chillers. That's the way nearly all data centers operate in the southwest, but not only there. That puts a bit more burden on the grid, but the operators benefit from having an independent power supply, so it's an easy compromise (if any compromise is even needed) to make them bring their own power. That's exactly what's happening at Three Mile Island, where Constellation is bringing Unit One back online, and Microsoft has already signed a 20-year contract to buy all of the power it generates.
In the long run, that probably cuts local energy prices because as systems become more efficient, Microsoft is going to end up selling a good bit of that power back to the community, and supply and demand will make everyone's bill cheaper.
Your response is excellent. It put into words many things I already thought. Our county is grappling with new data centers and fortune the county council is making thoughtful decisions so far.
People reflexively oppose every new technology, even while those technologies invariably make our lives better. But it's gotten a lot worse since we spent two generations teaching Critical Theory instead of critical thinking.
I hope more people like you get the word out. The Chicken-Littles are screaming bloody murder. You would believe the insults and pushback I got on X when I said it was the Chinese and Russians who are poisoning us against data centers. It was a full block day, if you know what I mean. 🥸
I do indeed. And you will note, everyone of them used a data center to scream at you.
A good explanation of what's happening with data centers. I think a good part of the problem we're having may include a couple of things: a lack of transparency on the part of local officials dealing with the proposals, and a lack of a good explanation of what's involved on the part of the companies making the proposals.
Someone from the company or group making a data center proposal should be laying out what will be involved in the construction and operation, much like you just did. And the local officials should preface any negotiations with a public meeting giving the proposers the chance to explain it to the local citizens. I think most opposition would dissolve if the air were cleared up front in this manner. I say most because there will always be an activist or two trying to muddy things up.
“Grass will grown in the streets.” —Jay Gould said about Jefferson. I’ve been on many school field trips to Jefferson. Thank you, Mr. Martin, for sharing your wisdom.
Nothing ever stays the same, no matter how much we may want it to. You're either moving forward or you're moving backward.
I took a look at Jefferson TX on Google Earth. It looks like it is about as far up the Big Cyprus Bayou as a shallow draft steamboat might have gone. It connects to the Red River somewhere near Shreveport, but would have been a long and winding route that might have been difficult at low water. Steamboats were important transportation infrastructure from the early 19th century to the turn of the 20th century. We no longer think of routes like that as transportation corridors. Life moves on. Economies change and adapt.