The United States ended the war with ~100 aircraft carriers and an atomic bomb. The victory would’ve been delayed, but this most certainly would not have been decisive for Japan. The Allied victory was very much inevitable given everything we know now unless the allies capitulated, which they certainly were never going to be in the mind to do at that point in the war.
Whatever actually happened always seems inevitable years later. But it rarely was. Might America have won in the Pacific? Certainly possible. But losing at Midway changes the psychology of the thing. And losing Europe means D-Day is either a failure or is never attempted. What would the point have been if the entire German army had been able to bear down on the beaches, instead of most of it being tied up in Russia? An invasion would have meant certain death for our armies, full-stop.
So what does it gain the world if we somehow beat Japan but Hitler wins in Europe?
That's a pretty ugly world, and a much uglier strategic situation for the U.S. than you are addressing here.
Ok overlord is a failure, and your land invasion is delayed further, but the allies had air supremacy over Europe at that point which means they could have successfully delivered an atomic bomb into German territory and ended the conflict within that theater sometime after the successful Trinity test. Appreciate the WW2 content!
Appreciate you too. But I would suggest that dropping an atomic bomb without the ability to follow it up wouldn't have done anything more than the firestorm in Hamburg had already done. Speer had moved a kind of shocking amount of production underground, and German war production actually increased every month of the war until March 1945 -- just five weeks before the end of war, and even while the Allies held a tremendous percentage of Germany itself. Without boots on the ground, there was no stopping them.
Anyway, the point is that the all-in effort which was dubbed "Total War" was absolutely necessary, and we still had multiple points of potential failure. These guys were amazing.
"This would have meant that the U.S. could not have taken Guadalcanal and New Guinea until much later. It also would have given Japan much more time to consolidate a line, for example, from Samoa to Midway to the Aleutians, which was also part of Japan’s Midway strategy."
There is also the question of the isolationist reemerging by 1943(?). I can see articles blaming Pearl Harbor on FDR putting the embargo on Japan, and asking what do we care about what happens In Asia?
I mean we see something similar today about Europe (Ukraine)/Israel/Iran.
The United States ended the war with ~100 aircraft carriers and an atomic bomb. The victory would’ve been delayed, but this most certainly would not have been decisive for Japan. The Allied victory was very much inevitable given everything we know now unless the allies capitulated, which they certainly were never going to be in the mind to do at that point in the war.
Whatever actually happened always seems inevitable years later. But it rarely was. Might America have won in the Pacific? Certainly possible. But losing at Midway changes the psychology of the thing. And losing Europe means D-Day is either a failure or is never attempted. What would the point have been if the entire German army had been able to bear down on the beaches, instead of most of it being tied up in Russia? An invasion would have meant certain death for our armies, full-stop.
So what does it gain the world if we somehow beat Japan but Hitler wins in Europe?
That's a pretty ugly world, and a much uglier strategic situation for the U.S. than you are addressing here.
Ok overlord is a failure, and your land invasion is delayed further, but the allies had air supremacy over Europe at that point which means they could have successfully delivered an atomic bomb into German territory and ended the conflict within that theater sometime after the successful Trinity test. Appreciate the WW2 content!
Appreciate you too. But I would suggest that dropping an atomic bomb without the ability to follow it up wouldn't have done anything more than the firestorm in Hamburg had already done. Speer had moved a kind of shocking amount of production underground, and German war production actually increased every month of the war until March 1945 -- just five weeks before the end of war, and even while the Allies held a tremendous percentage of Germany itself. Without boots on the ground, there was no stopping them.
Anyway, the point is that the all-in effort which was dubbed "Total War" was absolutely necessary, and we still had multiple points of potential failure. These guys were amazing.
Another What If question. What If Hitler Had Not Declared War On America?
"This would have meant that the U.S. could not have taken Guadalcanal and New Guinea until much later. It also would have given Japan much more time to consolidate a line, for example, from Samoa to Midway to the Aleutians, which was also part of Japan’s Midway strategy."
There is also the question of the isolationist reemerging by 1943(?). I can see articles blaming Pearl Harbor on FDR putting the embargo on Japan, and asking what do we care about what happens In Asia?
I mean we see something similar today about Europe (Ukraine)/Israel/Iran.
This all raises a serious question for me. My work is in finding the order and predictability in history.
Order and predictability with Humans....Good Luck With That!
FYI
History Buffs: Midway Part One
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qQim09n6mY&t=480s
History Buffs: Midway Part Two
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZGGn2ZfGZo&t=9s