Thank you to Dr. Martin for republishing this excellent article by the maestro of geopolitics, George Friedman! Today is the 84th Anniversary of the crucial Battle of Midway. Midway was THE crucial turning point of the War in the Pacific. But what few people know is, had America lost the Allies would’ve lost World War II. The ramifications of an American defeat at Midway would’ve been absolutely devastating. The Japanese would quickly conquered the islands in the South Pacific. They then would’ve built airfields and used their air power to prevent merchant shipping from entering. The flow of U.S. troops to Australia would’ve been reduced to a trickle or would’ve dried up altogether.
The United States would not have been able to take Guadalcanal or New Guinea until much later. It also would’ve given Japan plenty of time to consolidate a line from Samoa to Midway to the Aleutians. The United States wouldn’t have had a sufficient number of carriers to launch a Pacific offensive until mid-1943. We’d had to have focused on the South Pacific instead of the Gilberts, Marianas and Marshalls. The cost of bringing in bringing time, men and materiel into Japan’s range would’ve been most costly. American warships would’ve had to operate out of Pearl Harbor instead which would’ve taken much longer. Much of our time would’ve spent on submarines to protect supply ships. Japan would’ve had both time and material to increase its strength.
With Hawaii no longer being an effective base, Japan dominates the Western Pacific. They already had the islands of Attu and Kiska in Alaska but in this scenario, they’d go even further and take Dutch Harbor and Anchorage. Our production of naval reserves wouldn’t be able to surge until mid-1943. Resources would have to diverted to the Pacific, thus spelling the end for lend-lease. Australia with no help from America and Britain, would need to bring its troops home. As a result, the Germans win at El Alamein and take the Suez Canal and win control of the Mediterranean.
Australia would be forced to sign a pact of neutrality with Japan. The USSR would be in BIG trouble with no more lend-lease supplies coming and Siberia wide open. The Japanese could’ve linked up with the Germans by invading Siberia and assisting them in bringing down the Russian bear. The German’s southern flank would break through and Japan would control the Western Pacific, China AND Siberia now. The United States won the Battle of Midway due to a combination of luck, courage and the brilliance of our code breakers. But even the latter might not have mattered. The Japanese had just as good a weapons as our’s if not better and they outnumbered us. But thanks to our brave servicemen and God, we won the day!
Please don't forget Winston Churchill's 6 Vol The Second World War. Clearly from his / British perspective, but helps the reader to appreciate not only what was, but what might and might not have been.
Thank you to Dr. Martin for republishing this excellent article by the maestro of geopolitics, George Friedman! Today is the 84th Anniversary of the crucial Battle of Midway. Midway was THE crucial turning point of the War in the Pacific. But what few people know is, had America lost the Allies would’ve lost World War II. The ramifications of an American defeat at Midway would’ve been absolutely devastating. The Japanese would quickly conquered the islands in the South Pacific. They then would’ve built airfields and used their air power to prevent merchant shipping from entering. The flow of U.S. troops to Australia would’ve been reduced to a trickle or would’ve dried up altogether.
The United States would not have been able to take Guadalcanal or New Guinea until much later. It also would’ve given Japan plenty of time to consolidate a line from Samoa to Midway to the Aleutians. The United States wouldn’t have had a sufficient number of carriers to launch a Pacific offensive until mid-1943. We’d had to have focused on the South Pacific instead of the Gilberts, Marianas and Marshalls. The cost of bringing in bringing time, men and materiel into Japan’s range would’ve been most costly. American warships would’ve had to operate out of Pearl Harbor instead which would’ve taken much longer. Much of our time would’ve spent on submarines to protect supply ships. Japan would’ve had both time and material to increase its strength.
With Hawaii no longer being an effective base, Japan dominates the Western Pacific. They already had the islands of Attu and Kiska in Alaska but in this scenario, they’d go even further and take Dutch Harbor and Anchorage. Our production of naval reserves wouldn’t be able to surge until mid-1943. Resources would have to diverted to the Pacific, thus spelling the end for lend-lease. Australia with no help from America and Britain, would need to bring its troops home. As a result, the Germans win at El Alamein and take the Suez Canal and win control of the Mediterranean.
Australia would be forced to sign a pact of neutrality with Japan. The USSR would be in BIG trouble with no more lend-lease supplies coming and Siberia wide open. The Japanese could’ve linked up with the Germans by invading Siberia and assisting them in bringing down the Russian bear. The German’s southern flank would break through and Japan would control the Western Pacific, China AND Siberia now. The United States won the Battle of Midway due to a combination of luck, courage and the brilliance of our code breakers. But even the latter might not have mattered. The Japanese had just as good a weapons as our’s if not better and they outnumbered us. But thanks to our brave servicemen and God, we won the day!
I think now more than ever education on World War II is important, so here are some books for everyone:
* The Battle of Midway by Craig L. Symonds
* D-Day: The Battle for Normandy by Antony Beevor
* The Second World War by Antony Beevor
* All the Gallant Men: An American Sailor’s Firsthand Account of Pearl Harbor by Donald Stratton
* Mussolini and Hitler: The Forging of the Fascist Alliance by Christian Goeschel
* Germany and the Axis Powers: From Coalition to Collapse by Richard L. DiNardo
* Japan’s Holocaust: History of Imperial Japan’s Mass Murder and Rape During World War II by Bryan Mark Rigg
* Hitler’s Jewish Soldiers: The Untold Story of Nazi Racial Laws and Men of Jewish Descent in the German Military by Bryan Mark Rigg
* No Greater Ally: The Untold Story of Poland’s Forces in World War II by Kenneth K. Koskodan
* Finland’s War of Choice: The Troubled German-Finnish Coalition in World War II by Henrik Lunde
* American Caesar: Douglas MacArthur, 1880-1964 by William Manchester
* Patton: A Genius for War by Carlo D’Este
* Knight’s Cross: A Life of Field Marshal Erwin Rommel by David Fraser
* Vichy France: Old Guard and New Order, 1940-1944 by Robert O. Paxton
* Hitler’s Austria: Popular Sentiment in the Nazi Era, 1938-1945 by Evan Burr Bukey
The definitive book on Midway is Shattered Sword by Parshall and Tully
Please don't forget Winston Churchill's 6 Vol The Second World War. Clearly from his / British perspective, but helps the reader to appreciate not only what was, but what might and might not have been.