Hate to be the turd in the punch bowl BUT Very often Dictatorships when they get into domestic problems start ringing the old Us vs Them bell, asking Who Can I Go To War With?
Our guidance for a long time now has been that the next decade is the most dangerous.
Still, dictatorships don't go to war randomly. They go for things they think they can achieve that will make them stronger after. They may miscalculate, but the higher and plainer you make the risk, the less likely it becomes. Trump gets that.
Only if there's a clear chance to win something that matters.
Remember: the USSR did NOT invade Western Europe. The August 1991 coup plotters wanted to but were defeated.
Also remember: China has wanted Taiwan since 1949. There's a reason it hasnt' invaded, and that reason is only becoming more pronounced.
I think the key item to watch is how much China shifts its energy purchases toward the U.S. That was the most significant thing to come out of the Trump and Putin summits: Xi refused to approve Putin's gas pipeline from Siberia -- which would obviously reduce China's dependency on sea lanes we control -- and instead bought a bunch of LNG from the U.S. That suggests to me that they know they're in a box they're not getting out of any time soon.
Nevertheless, as you know, I've written a lot about the heightened danger we face from China over the next decade. I don't know who'd run this invasion (Taiwan presumably) since Xi has purged his top ranks. But without those guys, Zhang Youxia in particular, there's no brake on the more aggressive Xi except his own assessment of the situation. Trump is the right answer to that problem. But elect Newsom or Harris in 2028 and all bets are off.
One more item that should be added to the list of China's weaknesses and lies: Debt to GDP ratio.
Officially it is only about 60-70%, but in reality it is at least 300%, and perhaps approaching 400%, or maybe even higher.
The numerator (debt) should include not just Beijing govt debt, but local government debt, various semi-off-the-books and off-the-books debt schemes (like LGFVs), SOE debt, China Rail debt (almost $1T). The debt that everyone ASSUMES Beijing stands behind adds up to north of $30T, possibly north of $35T - there is no reason to assume that the reported numbers for all these debts are a ceiling. They might be a floor, given how the CCP cooks the books on virtually every statistic.
The denominator (GDP) is just as opaque, but the official number (around $20T) is clearly an overestimate by probably 2x. Nobody really knows what it is, not even the CCP itself, but $8T-10T is a reasonable estimate. Taking the lower end number of $8T, and $35T of debt gives us a debt to GDP ratio of OVER 400%.
Now THAT is a scary number, if I were a Chinese economist. There is no precedent in history for a large economy of global significance with those kind of debt ratio numbers. It's hard to even imagine what the future holds, beyond acknowledging the complete unsustainability of this.
And it only gets worse from here. Without the 40% of their oil that was steeply discounted sanctioned crude from Russia, Venezuela, and Iran, they're forced onto the open market. They can get oil, but they pay a lot more for it, even after prices revert to normal for the rest of us. That's been a huge prop to their shaky economy.
Then you get the demographic pressure. They've got maybe a decade before that really ignites: at a TFR of 0.92 and dropping, they're on track to lose 75% of their population this century. And it's not an even drop: they lose working-age people long before they lose a ballooning elderly population that has to be supported...largely by the income from those declining real estate investments that are only going to get emptier.
Etc.
If we can contain them for the next decade, the risk diminishes dramatically. A yuan crisis might push them over. It would certainly take the mask off.
There is considerable doubt about every statistic reported by China as it relates to population, marriages, births, deaths and fertility. Many of the statistics are inconsistent with each other. China's actual population today is certainly under 1 billion, perhaps considerably under - like around 800 million. I've seen even much lower numbers, but that's probably taking it a bit too far.
So a China of 300 million people is just around the corner, perhaps...
I would, however, note that economic difficulties do not necessarily make communist regimes less aggressive. If anything, just the opposite.
Yi Fuxian puts it at 1.28 billion, but that's still 150 million fewer than they claim, and it's all working-age people missing. No matter what the number is, the official number is clearly false, and this isn't the only number they're lying about.
For years, China's economy appeared to be a miracle. GDP surged, skyscrapers rose, and property prices exploded. But according to economist Zhou Qiren, the real story was something else: the cost of operating inside China's system was rising even faster than the economy itself.
In this video, we'll examine how land finance, hidden business costs, and state-driven investment gradually distorted China's economic model. We'll also look at Beijing's recent crackdown on Tiger Brokers, Futu, and Longbridge, and why authorities are now moving aggressively to stop money from leaving the country.
Are these simply regulatory actions, or signs of a deeper problem? As confidence weakens, capital flows overseas, and growth slows, some analysts warn that China may be entering a prolonged period of economic deterioration—not a sudden collapse, but a slow-motion crisis unfolding in plain sigh
When you build whole "ghost cities" no one lives in, and giant high-speed rail networks no one uses, it makes your construction and real estate sectors boom. For a while.
This is why socialism always fails. It is untethered from actual demand. So it builds whatever it wants until the money runs out.
At some point, Something will happen and We'll get knocked off the top, by some nation/group of nations. Its happened to other great powers and it'll happen to us. BUT until that happens I'm getting tired of The USSR, Japan, The EU, PRC will destroy us/are the wave of the future! OR The Doom & Gloomers on the Right...The End Of The Republic is here/right around the corner.
An excellent piece by Dr. Martin! As a member of the Soros Group, Scott Bessent took down another obsolete currency, the pound. Now he is doing that with the Yuan. The dollar is the best and most valuable currency in the world and everyone wants it. The Yuan is behind the dollar and even the euro. Scott Bessent is working behind the scenes like James Bond to bring the teetering Chinese currency down. China is in massive trouble! Some call the United States a dying empire. That is total bs! However, there is a country that label applies to, and that is the Middle Kingdom.
The CCP has a catastrophically declining birth rate, is going to lose 75% of its population, it’s economy is going down hill fast, they’ve overbuilt housing wise, they made more consumer goods then they’ve sold, Chinese influence is being rolled back in Latin America, their being locked out of Greenland as we speak, their influence in Africa has dissipated, the Belt Road Initiative is a huge flop, and America has secured every major choke point in the world.
China 🇨🇳 is headed for disaster! Perhaps by undermining the yuan as Scott Bessent is quietly doing, the decline of China can be hastened and the fall of the CCP can be induced. Things in China can’t even begin to think about getting better until Xi Jinping and his cronies are toppled from power and China becomes a free democracy. I’m praying 🙏 Scott Bessent can repeat his triumph at the Soros Group! Taking down the yuan could be the beginning of the end for one of the most evil regimes in recent history! Xi Jinping is not as bad as Mao was but he’s getting close! Is there any hope to rescue the Middle Kingdom from the misery and decay it finds itself in and make positive change?
Yes, it will take decades but it can be done. Here are the steps I would recommend. The people with the help of the military will topple the CCP from power. Xi Jinping and all Communist Party officials will be arrested and tried for crimes against humanity by the ICC at the Hague. Chinese dissidents will form its new political parties. Chinese technocrats will run the government until such time as free elections can be held. Once those elections take place and the new government is in power, American, western and Japanese advisors will be sent to help train its new government and military.
China will take measures to gradually (which is pretty much the best they can do) to reverse their demographic decline. China will start valuing its women and give them special financial benefits so they can balance work and family. Educational programs for women will be started as well as Chinese companies will start private initiatives to hire and train qualified women. Excess housing will be gradually destroyed. Low density neighborhoods will be built. Comprehensive fertility education will be taught to Chinese children from a young age. The cost of housing will be majorly cut. Chinese workers will be paid better wages and allowed to have unions. China will pay a stipend to Chinese couples with kids. Family, friends and neighborhoods will be encouraged to help in child rearing. The Chinese media will show positive examples of families and emphasis the preciousness of children.
China will start buying oil on the open market at full price. Uyghur concentration camps will be closed and the internees released. The Uyghur people will receive an official apology and be paid reparations by the new Chinese Republic. China will grant Tibet its independence, pay Tibet and its people massive reparations for fifty years of occupation and cultural repression. China will start playing fair on trade. In exchange for financial aid from the World Bank, IMF and the West, China will agree to get rid of half of its nuclear stockpile and the UN and the United States will be allowed to be regularly inspected the rest and any nuclear research the new republic does. China will release and grant amnesty to all political prisoners. An official apology will be paid for the one-child policy and those responsible for it put on trial for crimes against humanity.
Hong Kong will be granted full self-autonomy. China will do comprehensive immigration reform. It will welcome the best and the brightest from around the world to China by allowing a limited degree of immigration with an emphasis on high-skilled labor. The new Chinese Republic will officially recognize Taiwan as an independent nation and send an ambassador and open a Chinese consulate. China will shift to a more environmentally friendly energy policy. China will terminate relations with Russia and North Korea. China will publicly condemn Vladimir Putin’s regime and call for his toppling. Now former President Donald Trump is invited to Beijing as a honored guest of the new Chinese republic. He’s presented with a medal as a honored hero. Somewhere an irony angel just got it’s wings. 👼 😇
The diagnosis of China's predicament is sound and you can take it largely to the bank. The specific dramatic claim — that Bessent is running a deliberate 1992-style operation to crash the yuan — is speculation in the costume of inference, and the author is candid enough at the end ("he may not even need to") to undercut his own frame. China's bind is structural and real; whether any American official is the proximate cause of a yuan break, or whether one even happens, the piece can't actually tell you — and quietly admits it.
Perhaps it is not polite to ask, but what are President Trump's and Mr. Beesent's plans in regard to the Euro. With Germany deindustralizing and the north/south economic differences within Europe, how does that turn out?
Let's just put it this way. 15 years ago, the Eurozone's economy was bigger than the U.S. Today it's just 2/3 of the U.S. There is not a single country in Europe whose per capita GDP is as high as Mississippi's. And the worst is ahead.
"money will not run to Beijing. It will run from Beijing. It will not run to BRICS. It will not run to some fantasy “petroyuan.” It will not run to some multilateral currency scheme cooked up by Davos panels and Chinese state banks. It will run where money always runs in a real crisis: to the deepest, safest, most liquid market on Earth, the U.S. Treasury market."
Money is already running from Beijing. it may not (yet) be buying US Treasuries directly but it is buying crypto currencies, real estate in Singapore and Japan and elsewhere and so on.
A significant fraction of the exports we see are money laundering. Organizations export for cheap, get paid and don’t repatriate the money back to Beijing but keep it in USD,JPY etc. and invest in something in that currency
Hate to be the turd in the punch bowl BUT Very often Dictatorships when they get into domestic problems start ringing the old Us vs Them bell, asking Who Can I Go To War With?
Our guidance for a long time now has been that the next decade is the most dangerous.
Still, dictatorships don't go to war randomly. They go for things they think they can achieve that will make them stronger after. They may miscalculate, but the higher and plainer you make the risk, the less likely it becomes. Trump gets that.
Might it end up in a case of We've Got Nothing To Lose? ie Its War or we're gone.
Only if there's a clear chance to win something that matters.
Remember: the USSR did NOT invade Western Europe. The August 1991 coup plotters wanted to but were defeated.
Also remember: China has wanted Taiwan since 1949. There's a reason it hasnt' invaded, and that reason is only becoming more pronounced.
I think the key item to watch is how much China shifts its energy purchases toward the U.S. That was the most significant thing to come out of the Trump and Putin summits: Xi refused to approve Putin's gas pipeline from Siberia -- which would obviously reduce China's dependency on sea lanes we control -- and instead bought a bunch of LNG from the U.S. That suggests to me that they know they're in a box they're not getting out of any time soon.
Nevertheless, as you know, I've written a lot about the heightened danger we face from China over the next decade. I don't know who'd run this invasion (Taiwan presumably) since Xi has purged his top ranks. But without those guys, Zhang Youxia in particular, there's no brake on the more aggressive Xi except his own assessment of the situation. Trump is the right answer to that problem. But elect Newsom or Harris in 2028 and all bets are off.
One more item that should be added to the list of China's weaknesses and lies: Debt to GDP ratio.
Officially it is only about 60-70%, but in reality it is at least 300%, and perhaps approaching 400%, or maybe even higher.
The numerator (debt) should include not just Beijing govt debt, but local government debt, various semi-off-the-books and off-the-books debt schemes (like LGFVs), SOE debt, China Rail debt (almost $1T). The debt that everyone ASSUMES Beijing stands behind adds up to north of $30T, possibly north of $35T - there is no reason to assume that the reported numbers for all these debts are a ceiling. They might be a floor, given how the CCP cooks the books on virtually every statistic.
The denominator (GDP) is just as opaque, but the official number (around $20T) is clearly an overestimate by probably 2x. Nobody really knows what it is, not even the CCP itself, but $8T-10T is a reasonable estimate. Taking the lower end number of $8T, and $35T of debt gives us a debt to GDP ratio of OVER 400%.
Now THAT is a scary number, if I were a Chinese economist. There is no precedent in history for a large economy of global significance with those kind of debt ratio numbers. It's hard to even imagine what the future holds, beyond acknowledging the complete unsustainability of this.
And it only gets worse from here. Without the 40% of their oil that was steeply discounted sanctioned crude from Russia, Venezuela, and Iran, they're forced onto the open market. They can get oil, but they pay a lot more for it, even after prices revert to normal for the rest of us. That's been a huge prop to their shaky economy.
Then you get the demographic pressure. They've got maybe a decade before that really ignites: at a TFR of 0.92 and dropping, they're on track to lose 75% of their population this century. And it's not an even drop: they lose working-age people long before they lose a ballooning elderly population that has to be supported...largely by the income from those declining real estate investments that are only going to get emptier.
Etc.
If we can contain them for the next decade, the risk diminishes dramatically. A yuan crisis might push them over. It would certainly take the mask off.
There is considerable doubt about every statistic reported by China as it relates to population, marriages, births, deaths and fertility. Many of the statistics are inconsistent with each other. China's actual population today is certainly under 1 billion, perhaps considerably under - like around 800 million. I've seen even much lower numbers, but that's probably taking it a bit too far.
So a China of 300 million people is just around the corner, perhaps...
I would, however, note that economic difficulties do not necessarily make communist regimes less aggressive. If anything, just the opposite.
Yi Fuxian puts it at 1.28 billion, but that's still 150 million fewer than they claim, and it's all working-age people missing. No matter what the number is, the official number is clearly false, and this isn't the only number they're lying about.
Just like the Soviets before them.
The Statistic That Explains China's Economic Crisis
Lei's Real Talk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJelYEb4LeU
Jun 1, 2026 The Chinese Economy
For years, China's economy appeared to be a miracle. GDP surged, skyscrapers rose, and property prices exploded. But according to economist Zhou Qiren, the real story was something else: the cost of operating inside China's system was rising even faster than the economy itself.
In this video, we'll examine how land finance, hidden business costs, and state-driven investment gradually distorted China's economic model. We'll also look at Beijing's recent crackdown on Tiger Brokers, Futu, and Longbridge, and why authorities are now moving aggressively to stop money from leaving the country.
Are these simply regulatory actions, or signs of a deeper problem? As confidence weakens, capital flows overseas, and growth slows, some analysts warn that China may be entering a prolonged period of economic deterioration—not a sudden collapse, but a slow-motion crisis unfolding in plain sigh
When you build whole "ghost cities" no one lives in, and giant high-speed rail networks no one uses, it makes your construction and real estate sectors boom. For a while.
This is why socialism always fails. It is untethered from actual demand. So it builds whatever it wants until the money runs out.
Ben Shapiro Explains The ‘Inevitable Collapse’ Of China
By Valin
August 12, 2023
https://www.therightreasons.net/topic/106524-ben-shapiro-explains-the-%E2%80%98inevitable-collapse%E2%80%99-of-china/#comment-659033
Paticually
As China Crumbles, Progressive Mind Tricks Brainwash U.S. to Think It's a Mighty Empire
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xec1D7MKhok
Not that different from the western intelligentsia and the USSR, really.
BTW, you might want to search my site for "The Illusion of Chinese Strength". You'd really like it.
At some point, Something will happen and We'll get knocked off the top, by some nation/group of nations. Its happened to other great powers and it'll happen to us. BUT until that happens I'm getting tired of The USSR, Japan, The EU, PRC will destroy us/are the wave of the future! OR The Doom & Gloomers on the Right...The End Of The Republic is here/right around the corner.
/rant #398745
Someday, yes. But it won't be in the 21st century.
I have also read (Leadership) people are afraid to give Xi bad news, unless they are forced to. So by the time he gets the bad news , its to late.
Yes, he routinely kills the messenger. And he's purged everyone remotely competent enough to challenge his rule.
What can we do to help? I.e. profit? :-)
Bet on the dollar and against the yuan.
An excellent piece by Dr. Martin! As a member of the Soros Group, Scott Bessent took down another obsolete currency, the pound. Now he is doing that with the Yuan. The dollar is the best and most valuable currency in the world and everyone wants it. The Yuan is behind the dollar and even the euro. Scott Bessent is working behind the scenes like James Bond to bring the teetering Chinese currency down. China is in massive trouble! Some call the United States a dying empire. That is total bs! However, there is a country that label applies to, and that is the Middle Kingdom.
The CCP has a catastrophically declining birth rate, is going to lose 75% of its population, it’s economy is going down hill fast, they’ve overbuilt housing wise, they made more consumer goods then they’ve sold, Chinese influence is being rolled back in Latin America, their being locked out of Greenland as we speak, their influence in Africa has dissipated, the Belt Road Initiative is a huge flop, and America has secured every major choke point in the world.
China 🇨🇳 is headed for disaster! Perhaps by undermining the yuan as Scott Bessent is quietly doing, the decline of China can be hastened and the fall of the CCP can be induced. Things in China can’t even begin to think about getting better until Xi Jinping and his cronies are toppled from power and China becomes a free democracy. I’m praying 🙏 Scott Bessent can repeat his triumph at the Soros Group! Taking down the yuan could be the beginning of the end for one of the most evil regimes in recent history! Xi Jinping is not as bad as Mao was but he’s getting close! Is there any hope to rescue the Middle Kingdom from the misery and decay it finds itself in and make positive change?
Yes, it will take decades but it can be done. Here are the steps I would recommend. The people with the help of the military will topple the CCP from power. Xi Jinping and all Communist Party officials will be arrested and tried for crimes against humanity by the ICC at the Hague. Chinese dissidents will form its new political parties. Chinese technocrats will run the government until such time as free elections can be held. Once those elections take place and the new government is in power, American, western and Japanese advisors will be sent to help train its new government and military.
China will take measures to gradually (which is pretty much the best they can do) to reverse their demographic decline. China will start valuing its women and give them special financial benefits so they can balance work and family. Educational programs for women will be started as well as Chinese companies will start private initiatives to hire and train qualified women. Excess housing will be gradually destroyed. Low density neighborhoods will be built. Comprehensive fertility education will be taught to Chinese children from a young age. The cost of housing will be majorly cut. Chinese workers will be paid better wages and allowed to have unions. China will pay a stipend to Chinese couples with kids. Family, friends and neighborhoods will be encouraged to help in child rearing. The Chinese media will show positive examples of families and emphasis the preciousness of children.
China will start buying oil on the open market at full price. Uyghur concentration camps will be closed and the internees released. The Uyghur people will receive an official apology and be paid reparations by the new Chinese Republic. China will grant Tibet its independence, pay Tibet and its people massive reparations for fifty years of occupation and cultural repression. China will start playing fair on trade. In exchange for financial aid from the World Bank, IMF and the West, China will agree to get rid of half of its nuclear stockpile and the UN and the United States will be allowed to be regularly inspected the rest and any nuclear research the new republic does. China will release and grant amnesty to all political prisoners. An official apology will be paid for the one-child policy and those responsible for it put on trial for crimes against humanity.
Hong Kong will be granted full self-autonomy. China will do comprehensive immigration reform. It will welcome the best and the brightest from around the world to China by allowing a limited degree of immigration with an emphasis on high-skilled labor. The new Chinese Republic will officially recognize Taiwan as an independent nation and send an ambassador and open a Chinese consulate. China will shift to a more environmentally friendly energy policy. China will terminate relations with Russia and North Korea. China will publicly condemn Vladimir Putin’s regime and call for his toppling. Now former President Donald Trump is invited to Beijing as a honored guest of the new Chinese republic. He’s presented with a medal as a honored hero. Somewhere an irony angel just got it’s wings. 👼 😇
The diagnosis of China's predicament is sound and you can take it largely to the bank. The specific dramatic claim — that Bessent is running a deliberate 1992-style operation to crash the yuan — is speculation in the costume of inference, and the author is candid enough at the end ("he may not even need to") to undercut his own frame. China's bind is structural and real; whether any American official is the proximate cause of a yuan break, or whether one even happens, the piece can't actually tell you — and quietly admits it.
Well THAT was helpful: "the author cannot actually see the future." Uh, okay. And fish can't drive cars.
Perhaps it is not polite to ask, but what are President Trump's and Mr. Beesent's plans in regard to the Euro. With Germany deindustralizing and the north/south economic differences within Europe, how does that turn out?
Let's just put it this way. 15 years ago, the Eurozone's economy was bigger than the U.S. Today it's just 2/3 of the U.S. There is not a single country in Europe whose per capita GDP is as high as Mississippi's. And the worst is ahead.
"money will not run to Beijing. It will run from Beijing. It will not run to BRICS. It will not run to some fantasy “petroyuan.” It will not run to some multilateral currency scheme cooked up by Davos panels and Chinese state banks. It will run where money always runs in a real crisis: to the deepest, safest, most liquid market on Earth, the U.S. Treasury market."
Money is already running from Beijing. it may not (yet) be buying US Treasuries directly but it is buying crypto currencies, real estate in Singapore and Japan and elsewhere and so on.
A significant fraction of the exports we see are money laundering. Organizations export for cheap, get paid and don’t repatriate the money back to Beijing but keep it in USD,JPY etc. and invest in something in that currency
Indeed.