EXTRA EDITION: Trump Fires a (Stealth) Shot Across Putin's Bow
A fascinating take on something you might have missed (but Putin didn't).
NOTE: Donald Trump just sent a “speak softly and carry a big stick” sort of message to Vladimir Putin, and also to any Westerner who has eyes to see.
First, some background. I have consistently told you that the Russian military is a Potemkin village. It shows off advanced fighter jets, but is only able to produce a handful of them. It has vast armies on paper, but those soldiers are often barely-trained conscripts freshly dragooned off the streets. Pre-war at least, it projects the image of a global power. In fact, it’s a struggling regional power, facing demographic collapse, a predatory China, and an unsolvable geographical nightmare.
It tried to solve that by quickly capturing Ukraine to install a friendly government, thus reversing the U.S.-engineered “color revolution” that did the opposite and thus buying itself strategic depth. Western pundits breathlessly told us that Kiev would fall in three days, at most a week.
It’s three years later, and Putin now denies that was ever his aim at all. Because to admit it now is to admit defeat.
Why do I recap all this? Because on Sunday the Trump administration had an article published — immediately republished in Russia — that detailed how Washington stymied Putin in such intimate, classified detail that there was no mistaking who was sending the message. This was coupled with Trump’s statement that he’s now “pissed off” at Putin. All of which is immediately before the next round of peace talks.
What’s the message? Same as in Gaza: act in good faith or we’ll unleash Hell. And we’ve already proven we can, more than you (my reader or Vladamir Putin) previously realized.
Late yesterday, the ever-brilliant George Friedman offered his take on this remarkable missive. It’s shocking from a technological perspective: warfare is being reshaped more than most realized. But it’s the implicit message to Putin that most (except the Kremlin) have missed. Read on. — RDM
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