China’s Nuclear Arsenal Expansion: Reshaping Global Strategic Balance
China is on the brink of setting off a massive nuclear arms race. It's also proving the case for the most rapid and robust possible deployment of Trump’s Golden Dome missile shield.
NOTE: I have long asserted the utter uselessness and counterproductivity of arms control…with two principal exceptions. The first is the fruit of Reagan’s “Zero Option”, the 1987 Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which for several decades banned an entire class of nuclear weapons. The second is also Reagan’s brainchild: the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaties (or START). “New START” is the current treaty in force.
What’s so special? The START treaties did something truly innovative. Remarkable, really. And hardly anyone understands it.
New START caps the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads at 1,550 and the combined total of deployed and non-deployed launchers (ICBMs, SLBMs, strategic bombers) at 800.
That sounds like a lot of nukes. It’s certainly a lot compared to Britain (225), France (290), India (180), Pakistan (180), or Israel (90). But during the Cold War, each side had 30,000-40,000 strategic warheads. There were implications to that, as there are for the new numbers.
The current limits reduce total strategic weapons beneath the number of must-kill targets. During the Cold War there was always the danger of a first strike, because there was always the possibility that one side might catch the other napping and wipe them out before they could respond. But under the current limits, there is a 100% certainty that your enemy is going to hit you back, hard. The odds of a nuclear war are thus dramatically reduced.
So what’s the catch? China is not and never has been subject to any of these treaties. And now it’s expanding its arsenal from just 200 warheads toward U.S. and Russian levels, if not beyond.
This completely changes the global strategic calculus. It is likely to set off a massive nuclear arms race. And of course, it means Trump’s Golden Dome is every bit as urgent and necessary as he says.
The following article addresses the rapid expansion of the Chinese nuclear force. Americans must understand this threat, especially in light of the increasingly brittle nature of the Chinese state. — RDM
China’s Nuclear Arsenal Expansion: Reshaping Global Strategic Balance
by Antonio Graceffo
June 27, 2025
Recent U.S. intelligence assessments reveal China’s nuclear arsenal has now surpassed 600 warheads and is projected to exceed 1,000 by 2030, fundamentally challenging American nuclear dominance and decades of strategic planning.
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