China, North Korea and a Useful Coincidence

The Communist dictatorships are playing good cop, bad cop.

by George Friedman
April 7, 2017

The meetings between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump are underway. Given Trump’s position during the presidential campaign, the expectation was that the sole conversation would be about trade relations. Perhaps some attention would be paid to the South China Sea. But given recent events, the likelihood is that a great deal of time is being spent on North Korea.

As we have discussed, the North Koreans have not quite crossed the red line on possessing nuclear weapons. But they appear to be lurking close to that line, and even flaunting it. The recent launch of four medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) demonstrated that North Korea now has a fairly reliable medium-range missile. Other indicators, including photos, show it might have a sufficiently miniaturized nuclear weapon to marry to a missile.

Until now, the existence of a North Korean nuclear weapon was simply an idea. It was a program, not a reality. Of late, we have move…