The Russian Miscalculation and The New Old Germany

Putin loses even if he wins.

by Rod D. Martin
March 1, 2022

As I have been saying, it was absolutely crazy for Putin to actually invade Ukraine. Even if Russia wins, they lose.

Putin could have neutralized (“Finlandized”) Ukraine and split NATO diplomatically. Instead, he’s unified NATO — and against him — for the first time in 20 years; the Germans are rearming for the first time in 30, all of Europe (but especially Germany, which had resisted this) is forced to look to the US and UAE for natural gas, and worst of all, if Ukraine wins, it is almost certain to end up in NATO.

I would add that it’s perfectly possible that Sweden and Finland might now join NATO as well. Instead of Finlandizing Ukraine, Putin may have just un-Finlandized Finland.

This invasion is as staggering a miscalculation as Pearl Harbor.

George Friedman looks at the German part of the equation, below: