The Demographic Costs of a War Over Taiwan
China’s population is already shrinking. The further demographic consequences of a Taiwan invasion would be devastating.
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by Yi Fuxian
April 23, 2025
Taiwan is a geopolitical hotspot. Bloomberg Economics assesses the global economic impact of a war over Taiwan at $10 trillion — dwarfing the blow from the war in Ukraine or the COVID-19 pandemic. Multiple nations are trying economically and militarily to deter China from reunifying Taiwan by force. But the best deterrent may be to make China aware of the potentially unbearable demographic consequences of war.
Demographic Consequences of the Russia-Ukraine War
The loss of life in the Russia-Ukraine war goes beyond the hundreds of thousands of military and civilian deaths. There has also been a marked decrease in births in both countries.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia’s fertility rate fell from 1.89 births per woman in 1990 to 1.16 in 1999, which President Vladimir Putin has described as a “national crisis.” For decades, he has warned that Russia is on the path to extinction. In 2006, Putin declared the need to address population decline as “the highest national priority.” Thanks to the government’s generous anti-crisis measures and relatively friendly international relations, the Russian economy grew at an average annual rate of 5 percent from 2000 to 2013, and the fertility rate rose to 1.78 in 2015.
But Russia seized Crimea in 2014, incurring Western sanctions. As a result Russia’s economy grew at an average annual rate of only 0.7 percent during 2014-2022, and births dropped from 1.94 million in 2015 to 1.4 million in 2021. In Ukraine, the fertility rate fell from 1.51 in 2015 to 1.16 in 2021, due to the economic recession partly caused by the significant resources devoted to war preparedness.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 reduced births in Russia even more, to 1.26 million in 2023. In Ukraine, family separation and economic hardship led to a further decline in the fertility rate to 0.7 the same year. Had Russia and Ukraine stabilized their fertility rates at 2015 levels, there would have been 1.8 million and 600,000 more births, respectively, in 2016-2023 than actually occurred.
Russia’s geopolitical situation is worse than before the war, its economic outlook is grim, and its population will decline rapidly. Putin’s hopeful dream of national rejuvenation will end in a nightmare.
Russia’s invasion has been a demographic catastrophe for Ukraine. The combination of out-migration, war casualties, and low fertility rate has reduced Ukraine’s population from 45.4 million in 2014 to 33-35 million today. The mass exodus of women and children will lead to a continued decline in post-war births. Labor shortages, aging, and disability will make post-war reconstruction very difficult, so the fertility rate will not recover much.
China and Taiwan Are Already in Demographic Trouble
Taiwan’s average fertility rate was only 1.15 during 2000-2021, lower than Ukraine’s 1.33, and only 0.87 in 2022. Taiwan’s National Development Council projects that if the fertility rate stabilizes at 0.9, Taiwan’s population will shrink from 23 million in 2023 to 15 million in 2070.