Senate Update: Sept. 19, 2018

by Rod D. Martin
September 19, 2018

I sounded the alarm yesterday about the House. A large majority of Republicans believe the Democrats won't win this fall, which means they may become complacent, which will surely result in the Democrats winning the House this fall. We must do everything we can to avert that needless disaster.

But what about the Senate? Needless to say, the same phenomenon affects both Houses, but it certainly doesn't affect the Senate to the same degree.

Currently, 48 Republican seats either safe or not on the ballot at all, vs. 37 for the Democrats. That's a big hurdle for the Democrats. But there's more.

Right now, RCP is calling 9 toss-ups, counting Texas (and I don't, but I will for this purpose). That means Republicans have to win just two of the toss-ups (net) to hold the Senate.

Every one of the toss-ups is highly winnable for Republicans, and Wisconsin and West Virginia are also winnable (though I don't think we'll win either of them). New Jersey has actually mov…