Preventing Another Pearl Harbor: Wargaming a Chinese Surprise Attack
Is the U.S. military prepared to deter a potential Pearl Harbor–style surprise attack by the Chinese communist regime?
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by Shen Zhou
July 30, 2025
As U.S.–China tensions escalate, the U.S. military is preparing for the possibility of a major war with the Chinese Communist regime — one that could begin with a surprise attack.
The top priority in any U.S.–China war game scenario is preventing a repeat of Pearl Harbor.
On Dec. 7, 1941, Japan launched a surprise attack on Pearl Harbor — even knowing it couldn’t win an extended war against the United States — in an attempt to prevent the United States from interfering with its plans in Southeast Asia. The U.S. military was caught off guard and suffered heavy losses, triggering the start of the Pacific War.
Recently, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been aggressively building up its military to counter the United States, with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) openly confronting U.S. forces and allies across the western Pacific. The PLA has made breaking through the First Island Chain a key objective.
The good news is that the United States has begun to take the threat seriously.
At the 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned in a May 31 speech that the threat from Communist China is “real” and potentially “imminent.”
He emphasized that Washington aims to prevent war through strengthened deterrence in cooperation with allies. But he also issued a clear warning: “If deterrence fails...we are prepared to do what the Department of Defense does best: to fight and win, decisively.”
While China currently lacks the conventional weapons to strike Hawaii directly, it does have the capability to hit U.S. bases in Japan and potentially Guam.
If the PLA moves on Taiwan, Beijing’s fear is U.S. intervention. A simultaneous preemptive strike on U.S. forces in the Western Pacific — mirroring Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor — is a likely scenario.
That raises a key question for the U.S. military: Can it prevent another Pearl Harbor?
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