Has Russia Changed Its Red Lines in Ukraine?
Russians negotiate slowly, and they make Trump's demands look tame. But there's been a big shift in Russia's positions since Trump turned up the heat two weeks ago. Blink and you might miss it.
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NOTE: Russians always negotiate slowly, and they never fail to make Trumpian demands look tame. But there's been a big shift in Russia's positions since Trump turned up the heat two weeks ago. Is it real? Will it last? Who can say? But it’s significant if real, and could mean real progress toward peace.
Owen Matthews’ take below correctly highlights the difficulties between the United States and Europe that will come with peace. Since the war began, Europe has sent twice as much money to Moscow for energy as it has to Kiev in aid. This is a travesty, but one the Europeans are finally trying to end. But peace is only possible by ending war, and that peace is certainly going to require ending the wartime sanctions against Russia and letting it prosper again (?).
In my view, Europe should absolutely wean off dependency on Russia for strategic supply such as energy. Moreover, the United States can supply Europe’s energy, and erase its trade deficit, all in one go. But that doesn’t mean Russia must not benefit from the peace we’re demanding that it make. The sanctions are going to have to go. The specific things we invest in and purchase can shift, a lot.
Making peace is always hard if you haven’t won an outright victory. But you don’t make peace with your friends. And that idea has been lost on Washington and Brussels for a long, long time. The President gets it. Can the Germans? — RDM
Has Russia Changed Its Red Lines in Ukraine?
by Owen Matthews
May 30, 2025
Has the Kremlin shifted its red lines on Ukraine? As Russian troops on the ground line up to launch a new summer offensive and more missiles rain down on Kyiv than any point since the beginning of the invasion, Putin’s diplomats are preparing to step back from some of their hardest-line positions.
According to a set of Russian position papers seen by Reuters, the Kremlin appears to step back from its earlier demands for “de-militarization” of Ukraine. Also apparently jettisoned are claims on the areas of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions still controlled by Ukraine but which Russia had formerly demanded as part of any peace deal.
The Kremlin itself has been quick to squash speculation about their new, apparently toned-down negotiating position, with Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov declining to comment on the terms Russia intends to propose for a ceasefire in Ukraine. So far Peskov has only stated that coming face-to-face talks between Moscow and Kyiv will be “long and painstaking.”
But if true, the new parameters will mark a decided shift from Moscow’s position just two weeks ago when the first talks between Russian and Ukrainian teams since the beginning of the war took place in Istanbul.
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