Fishing for the Fourth Institutional Cycle

Whether you take George Friedman's approach or Neil Howe's, the next few years are going to be a doozy.

NOTE: George Friedman and Neil Howe (The Fourth Turning Is Here) share a lot of viewpoints, but George’s framework involves two separate cycles he believes recur in American history: an institutional cycle that runs for 80 years, and a socio-economic cycle that runs for about 50. That actually tracks more closely with Neil’s dates than it might overtly appear. But regardless, George notes that for the first time in history, both of those cycles are ending at the same time, right in the middle of Neil’s predicted Fourth Turning Crisis (or ekpyrosis).

BTW, the fishing case he talks about in this article is a blockbuster, but there’s an even bigger one that’s already had oral argument at the Supreme Court and will be ruled upon this spring, Jarkessy v. SEC. That case could overturn half of the New Deal. — RDM