China’s Submarine Force To Surpass The U.S. by 2030
Though the U.S. maintains a sizable qualitative and technological lead, Chinese surface combatants now outnumber the U.S. Navy. Now they're about to overtake us in subs, with little relief in sight.
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by Nitin J. Ticku
September 19, 2025
The latest analysis by security experts suggests that by 2030, China will not only establish a numerical lead over the U.S. in submarines, but Beijing’s subs are also getting quieter, faster, and capable of carrying more advanced weapons and better sensors that can stay underwater for longer durations.
These rapid strides in submarine technology have the potential to alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.
After Ukraine, the next flashpoint could be Taiwan, which China has vowed to reunify with the mainland by force if necessary. In recent years, high-ranking US officials have declared that China will invade Taiwan by 2027, but Beijing denies there is a deadline.
Any conflict over Taiwan, the self-ruling democratic island, will necessarily involve a larger role for the navy, with the underwater fleet of submarines and undersea drones playing a critical role.
However, despite this, there is little the U.S. can do to avoid being overtaken, as its shipbuilding and submarine building capabilities have been in a systematic decline for decades, a trend that likely cannot be reversed in just a few years.
CCP vs. U.S. Fleet Sizes
According to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), China now possesses the world’s largest maritime fighting force, operating 234 warships to the U.S. Navy’s 219.
This count of China’s fighting ships encompasses all of its known, active-duty manned, missile- or torpedo-armed ships or submarines displacing more than 1,000 metric tons, including the 22 missile-armed corvettes recently transferred to the China Coast Guard, but not the approximately 80 missile-armed small patrol craft operated by the People’s Liberation Army Navy, or PLAN.