What a Difference a Poll Makes

Congressional Republicans, should they win, better learn their lesson from this near-death experience. Their constituency is conservative first, Republican second.

by Rod D. Martin
September 21, 2006

In 1998, then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich confidently predicted that the Monica Lewinsky scandal and Bill Clinton’s sale of U.S. military secrets to China for campaign cash would net Republicans 25 House seats in November.  When the all-Clinton-all-the-time approach actually produced a GOP net loss of 5, Gingrich had the joy of resigning.

As surprising as it may seem, Nancy Pelosi may soon get that same one-way ticket home.

Just weeks ago, all talk was of the imminent Democrat takeover of Congress.  In mid-July, the USA Today/Gallop poll found a Democrat lead of 16 points in its generic congressional ballot test.  Pelosi and pals were giddy with thinly-veiled (and occasionally crystal clear) talk of impeachment hearings, and Ned Lamont’s victory over the Senate’s sole remaining pro-defense Democrat, Joe Lieberman, fueled glee from Haight-Ashbury to Greenwich Village.

But something happened on the way to the inauguration.

This week’s USA Today/Gallop poll …